Eric Margolis on Pakistan's nuclear problem

[Awaisi]

http://www.dawn.com/2004/02/14/op.htm#3

Pakistan's nuclear mess

By Eric S. Margolis

The timing of the scandal over Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan is either an incredible coincidence, or it is part of a brilliantly orchestrated campaign to eliminate Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

This writer noted some months ago that Israel and its American supporters have been pressing the Bush administration to make dismantling Pakistan's nuclear forces a top priority. If that is not immediately possible, pro-Israel neo-conservatives in the Bush administration are agitating for a high degree of US control over Pakistan's nuclear weapons and nuclear industries.

Dr Khan's bizarre admission on national TV that he headed a massive, international smuggling operation supplying Iran, North Korea and Libya with assorted nuclear technology was not just an unprecedented political and public relations disaster for Pakistan. It also handed Washington a club with which to beat Pakistan over the nuclear issue.

It's hard to believe Pakistan's claims that it was all the fault of the miscreant Dr Khan. His TV confession next to a stern-looking President Musharraf looked more like a naughty school boy being reprimanded by the school director.

The prevailing view abroad is that the military and ISI could not have been unaware of Dr. Khan's activities and, indeed, may have been collaborators. Suspicions are even being voiced about how much President Musharraf knew in recent years, though he is being largely shielded by his continuing usefulness to the US strategic policy in South Asia.

The view among Pakistan-watchers is that Dr Khan has been made the fall guy for a much larger and more sinister conspiracy that may yet explode into view and consume the current regime in Islamabad.

What can a long-time observer and friend of Pakistan say about this ghastly mess? First, one can only hope that the diversion of nuclear technology to other nations was motivated by some sort of Islamic zeal to help defend small, vulnerable countries threatened by the United States. This argument certainly applies to Iran, which has as much right to nuclear weapons for self-defence as, say, France or India.

But selling even proto-type nuclear plans to Libya's erratic, mercurial leader, Col. Muammar Qadhafi, was unwise and dangerous in the extreme, no matter how much Libya was threatened from without.

Libya has admitted blowing up a French airliner and was almost certainly responsible for the downing of an American Pan Am transport. No Pakistani had any business supplying nuclear technology to a regime that would commit such crimes.

Selling or bartering nuclear technology to North Korea, a nightmarish, Stalinist dictatorship that has repeatedly threatened nuclear and chemical attack on North Korea and US Pacific bases, cannot under any circumstances be excused.

North Korea may have provided Pakistan with missile technology to counter India's extensive and very threatening missile programmes, but covert dealings with the Pyongyang regime - if true - badly besmirch Pakistan's name and leave it open to charges of reckless irresponsibility.

Pakistan's credibility in the West, and particularly Washington, is around zero. In fact, after Dr. Khan's bombshell revelations, it is highly likely Pakistan would have been hit with an oil embargo and crushing financial sanctions - or even declared a pariah state - were not General Musharraf so valuable to Washington's campaign against Islamic resistance forces.

India, which has long tried to brand Pakistan a 'terrorist state,' is crowing with delight. No one in the West cares a whit that important parts of Delhi's nuclear arms development was based on US technology stolen by Israel and then sold to India.

The US will now sharply intensify pressure on Islamabad to accept some form of 'joint control' over its nuclear arsenal. The first steps have already been accomplished by pressuring Pakistan to accept United States nuclear command and control technology and security codes.

Washington will now use the Khan scandal to demand integration of the CIA and US military personnel in Pakistan's nuclear forces structure. The next step: joint guarding of weapons and reactors and, finally, their total control by US forces.

Washington's long-standing contention that Muslim nations are too irresponsible, corrupt and unstable to be allowed nuclear weapons has now been vindicated in spades by the Khan disaster. It will be very hard for Islamabad to resist onrushing US demands - backed by financial and political threats - for nuclear joint control. - Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2004

[Naveed]

This article is an eye-opener for all orthodox Pakistanis around the world. Are we going to loose all that we've achieved so far? is this the end of our program and ultimately our sovereignty? it looks like an epic story that once a country had nukes and how the world slowely removed them with having fired a single bullet.......Oh God.

[Khurram Shaikh]

Eric Morgolis is a spinoff of some paranoid personality who continues to make Pakistanis live in an exaggerted fear. Although some of what he writes about Pakistan is true but he is trying to cripple us even we are becoming less and less dependent on US. Some body in our govt needs to take Eric aside and whisper in his ear: "Get a life buddy". But the tragic side of this drama is the emergence of the stories about individuals that have recently come out of Pakistan. The question remains : Are we really becoming attuned to the "special needs" of America and us as the advantanged have made it disavantangeous even with nuclear arsenal. All Pakistan has to do is to start growling and barking loud enough that we eventually be heard like N Korea. Some one in Capitol Hill with a shred of rationale would not just label i as growling and what ever they called it in DC, N Korean pit bull quite for so long was forced bark and punch some holes in Uncle Sam's ego.. People in Washington have legitimate mental disease and handicaps that keep them from understanding full range of our capabilities and strenght as a nation. Experts in nuclear medicine in Hiroshima and Nagasaki know this painfully well.

KS

[SyedA]

One of the most favorite past time of Pakistanis is paranoia and self pitty.....

[Naveed]

Hey..this is not past time for any one..... if this story is going to be true then???? will it be a past time activity? Do not think that every think is settled down. This issue will re-emerege when " they " want.

[iqbal's]

If "they" want to revisit the issue in the future "they" do not need any excuse."They" can always manufacture one (cf IRAQ & its WMD).We should not use this as an excuse NOT to punish the idiots who have put us in this situation and learn how not to get here again.
Iqbal

[Naveed]

I agreed, this must be avoided in future.

[Naveed]

I agreed - Iqbal, this must be avoided in future.

[MohammedA]

I read that Government is proposing a clsoed session of the Senate to discuss nuke proliferation. Is it not best that the govt also launches media campaign to re-assure the scientist community and public that nuke program is safe, and launch some media campaign to highlight other countries proliferation?

I think the govt could have handled this issue more discretely, even if the US & other powers seem to be satisfied for the time being. There was no need to put Dr Khan on tv IMHO. As usual, the govt is too apologetic when it comes to our defence programs. It doesn't make snese to one day threaten India with nuke retaliation, then being apologetic to everybody else. Why not make it clear we will never allow any roll-back, and we continually upgrade and increase our defence. Also, make it clear, we we have evry right to defend ourselves not only against India but anybody else who may intimidate us be they to our West or East or internally. I am not impressed with this daily ritual of one FO spokesman appearing on PTV delivering standard one-liners to the press. Where is the PR strategy??? Or is it all left to likes of great speakers like Sheikh Rahid?

[shamayel]

I don't know why Pakistani newspapers just reprint the western or Indian propaganda without giving it a second thought.

[FarazA]

Quote: Originally Posted by shamayel I don't know why Pakistani newspapers just reprint the western or Indian propaganda without giving it a second thought.

Because simple minded Pakistanis believe in anything written on a news paper without giving it a second thought or without using their own common sense.

[AkramIshaqKhan]

I think the government's decision for a closed door joint session is the right way to go. There is ABSOLUTELY no need to raise such important issues in the public. Any politician who ask for anything different than a closed session is trying to make political hay, and careless for the impact on Pakistani security. Such members should not even be invited to this session.

I agree with this decision by the government, even though I am very troubled on how this whole affair was handled.

[MohammedA]

Good article form Jang by an anonymous author.............


The proliferation tangle

By Track Two

‘Not a word against my country shall ever pass my lips on foreign soil’

Attributed to Sir Winston Churchill

There is general agreement that the long-suffering Pakistani nation has displayed a remarkable resilience in its 50- plus years of existence. It has weathered many crises and faced hostility from many quarters.

Each time doubts have been raised over its survival. It has not only survived but has progressed-perhaps not as fast and as well as it should have but fairly well. There have been events that cast a long shadow and had implications that lasted years. There were the wars with India, the loss of the eastern part, the revolution in Iran, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the rise of the Taliban and AI Qaeda in Afghanistan, the freedom struggle in Kashmir, 9/1I, the US-led Coalition’s invasion of Afghanistan, the fall of the Taliban and AI Qaeda, and, last but not the least, the proliferation problem.

Perhaps we could have avoided the wars with India and may be we could have saved East Pakistan politically but the other events were largely out of our control. The more recent proliferation issue, however, needs to be seen in the context of a world-wide underworld and black market that was not our creation but that we used to acquire a capability that could ensure our national security. If other options had been available it is doubtful that we would have taken this dangerous and risky direction.

At various times Pakistan did propose a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in South Asia and a Strategic Restraint Regime but there were no takers.

As of now the situation is that Iran, Libya and North Korea have denied having taken nuclear technology from Pakistan. The implication being that no direct transfer has taken place and that the problem is one of intellectual property. The Director CIA has stated that US intelligence had penetrated the nuclear proliferation network and was aware of what was going on. Pakistan’s top scientist has accepted the accusations against him and by confessing publicly have earned a pardon because of his past services. He is reported to have made allegations about the involvement of the Army and has given the widest possible publicity to these allegations thereby leading to their inclusion in the ‘debriefing’.

These allegations by the principal accused have little legal significance but some psychological value in creating the impression of an underdog used and discarded by his masters. This has also started the talk of a ‘cover up’ that is being played up by the Western media because it ties in with their perceptions of a ‘rogue army’, an irresponsible government, a nuclear capability not under control and a flawed personnel reliability programme that has allowed extremist and unreliable people into the intelligence and nuclear facilities.

We should not expect India to pass up the opportunity to exploit this situation though with the ongoing peace overtures this may be done in devious ways. In a paper titled’ Armed, Dangerous and Unaccountable,’ Mr. K P S Gill, President Institute for Conflict Management, writes ‘from the very moment of its creation, Pakistan has been little more than an organized criminal enterprise masquerading as a nation-state. For years now, I have been arguing that Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities will have to be shut down. Countries that cannot control their nuclear establishment and prevent illegal transfers of technology cannot escape the ambit of international controls. Countries that actively promote such illegal proliferation must draw upon themselves the harshest of international sanctions and inspection regimes. To fail in this course is to ignore the great danger that such rogue states constitute, not only to peace, but to human survival itself’.

This from the citizen of a country that pulled the stopper on the South Asian nuclear genie! So when President Musharraf talks of national interest and cautions the media what he is really saying is that do not market Pakistan irresponsibly and do not provide fodder to those who would run us down.

Faced with a situation of the magnitude of the proliferation scandal nations either come together or start falling apart because of the pressures generated. In Pakistan’ case these pressures get magnified because of many factors. There is the perception that there is extreme US pressure on Pakistan and that the proliferation issue will be used to keep on doing whatever the US wants us to do. We need to examine this perception objectively.

The US is trying to bring stability, governance and peace in Afghanistan. It is in our interest to fully support US efforts in Afghanistan. An unstable southern Afghanistan or Al Qaeda presence in sanctuaries in our western border areas is not in our interest at all. President Musharrafs’ statement in his recent address at the National Defence College that ‘we must stop whatever is happening in Afghanistan from Pakistan’ should be supported. Instead of the obsession with US pressure there should be an analysis of the situation to determine how best we can do what needs to be done in our western border areas.

Another perception that needs analysis is that there is a ‘sell-out’ on Kashmir and that the US is forcing us to back off and push for conflict resolution. Some statistics are interesting-these are from a report on ‘Cost of Conflict between India and Pakistan’ by the Strategic Foresight Group. The Siachen conflict alone will cost India Rs. 7200 crores and Pakistan Rs. 1800 crores in the next five years-also in the same period a total of 1500 soldiers will lose their lives without fighting a war. Kashmirs Gross Terror-economy Product (GTP) is estimated to be Rs. 3.5 billion. India and Pakistan have the potential to enjoy a trade of about $ 1 billion if hostility continues and $13.25 billion if peace prevails on a cumulative basis for the next five years (2004-2008 ) resulting in an opportunity loss of $ 12 billion. If peace does not prevail and terrorism continues, Kashmir will see the death of 6000 civilians, 10000 militants, 2500 security personnel during 2004-2008.

The other factor is the exploitation of the conflict by non -state actors for their own agenda of terrorism and the lucrative spin-offs from a conflict situation. We must decide whether continued conflict in Kashmir and hostility with India is in our interest or do we need peace. If we need peace then the dialogue process with India needs to be fully supported.

Another perception is that Pakistan is being forced to act against religious elements within the country and that this is being done at the behest of the US. If this were so then would the major religious parties have been allowed empowerment in the recent elections? Is it in our interest to have extremists linked to terrorism? Does action to root out extremism and terrorism have anything to do with religion?

The nexus between extremism, sectarianism, terrorism, drugs and weapons trade is destroying the fabric of our society and is creating a serious internal security situation. In fact an impression is being deliberately created that the religious factions are the only real guardians of our sovereignty, our security, our nuclear programme, the militant struggle for Kashmir and that this is the only group that can stand up to the US and resist its pressure. This makes them heroes and gives them leverage to arm twist the government into a policy of appeasement.

The strong religious values among the people are, therefore, being exploited by a segment of our media, by sub-cultures within the establishment and by a section of the political institution for interests other than national interest. The proliferation issue is an example of how facts staring us in the face are not being accepted and are in fact being distorted to create a situation that instead of safeguarding our nuclear assets is actually undermining their long term security.

It is important to understand and, to make our people understand, that events beyond our control have changed the world as we knew it. Policies based on denial to resist pressures have run their course-we may have extracted advantages in the past but to go on clinging to them in the new global environment spells disaster. It is time for a paradigm shift. This means firming up our border with Afghanistan and purging the tribal areas of all aliens-ultimately moving towards settling the tribal areas.

It also means pursuing the peace process with India sincerely by reciprocal actions to change hostility and confrontation into peace and cooperation. State power has to be used to root out extremism, sectarianism and terrorism as well as their linkages to illegal finances. Having faced up to the proliferation issue squarely it is time to bury it and to safeguard our assets by conforming to international regimes and norms without compromising the security and integrity of our facilities. Contrary to what is being propagated this will ensure the survival and improvement of our capabilities. We must now bring in policies based on an acceptance of realities and indicate a willingness to implement the new policies.

This is no time to straddle the fence with two-faced policies just to appease a segment that is deliberately out of tune with realities only because this gives them leverage. We have to forge and maintain a strong cooperative strategic relationship with the US and to do this all our elements of national power must be orchestrated into a long term strategy. This does not have to be at the cost of our sovereignty and interests but it does imply changing our image by changing perceptions based on past policies.

It also means that besides focusing on the points of convergence we have to work at addressing the areas of divergence. We need to enhance capabilities to face the threats of the future. What good are border security forces if they cannot surveil, detect and destroy or capture terrorists? A coast guard incapable of interception at sea is not much use against terrorists that may be using the seaward approach for drugs and weapons? What good are numerous agencies if they cannot be integrated to rapidly focus on an imminent threat? What good are intelligence capabilities if they cannot produce a comprehensive threat picture - strategic and tactical, internal and external? We need the US to assist us in improving our capabilities. We need to create harmony in our relationships with all other countries.

The structural robustness of our economy achieved over the last four years can be translated into the economic well being of the people only if we can integrate and interact globally. We must be seen as a nation that has the capability to safeguard its interests not just by power but also by pragmatic policies that are not hostage to any pressure groups.

Finally it must be noted that the political institution has a very important role. It must act to remove imbalances and distortions within itself and not wait for the military to give directions. In fact the present political dispensation has been brought about by the efforts of the military. The people elected to office must now understand the need for new directions and not only endorse the new policies and priorities but actively support and push them. This will lay the basis for an enduring civil-military equation. This is not the time to fight turf wars or to stay in the shadows. Personal and party ambitions and interests are important political considerations but this is when these should take a back seat to the overall goal of strengthening government, governance and policies. This is the time to come together and not fall apart. We are at the starting point of a new direction in our destiny-we must not fail.

(The writer’s name has been withheld on the request of the author)

[majithia]

The sectarianism, fundamentalism, religious extremism were all legitimized and promoted by Gen Zia-Ul Haq and are now "total actualities" of the present and future of Pakistan's religious parties. The hatred they have created has become so prevalent in Pakistan that it no longer stands out and glares in our face. Making them gaurdians of our sovereignty and (their) finger on the nuclear button would make a very dangereous but impressive mix that will take Pakistan to a strange and very un-impressive destiny.

majithia