India fears it is losing edge over Pakistan

[JunaidNasir]

Unbelievable! banya cring wolf again.

India fears it is losing edge over Pakistan

http://www.dawn.com.pk/2006/10/05/top4.htm


By Our Correspondent

NEW DELHI, Oct 4: India’s senior security officials met here on Wednesday to consider a range of urgent issues including a nagging fear of losing Delhi’s traditional military edge over Pakistan, sources said.

The discussions came on the day new Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon met the Home Secretary, Duggal, to consider the Mumbai police claim that Pakistan’s spy agency was behind the 7/11 train blasts in the city.

The Times of India said on Wednesday that the high-level security meeting was called barely three days after Washington and Islamabad resolved their differences over the proposed F-16 fighter package.

It was to discuss “enhancement of Pakistan’s war capability” and the threat it poses to India, the paper said. “Faced with a declining combat ratio with Pakistan, the armed forces have called for urgent steps to ensure that their long-standing conventional military superiority is not eroded any further,” The Times said.

Along with Pakistan’s acquisition of a worrying nuclear arsenal, India’s defence establishment is also worried about the conventional edge. “Unless immediate steps are taken to arrest the reduction in IAF’s force levels, the nation will for the first time in its history lose the conventional military edge over Pakistan,” Air Chief Marshal S. P. Tyagi cautioned in a recent letter to Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee, the newspaper said.

Similarly, army estimates show India enjoys only a slight edge over Pakistan now, it said. “Consider this: The combat ratio during the 1971 war was 1.75:1 in India’s favour. But it declined to 1.56:1 by 1990, and now stands at only 1.22:1.”

The meeting was called by Cabinet Secretary B.K. Chaturvedi and included Home Secretary V.K. Duggal, Defence Secretary Shekhar Dutta, army chief, Gen. J.J. Singh, air force chief, Air Chief Marshal S.P. Tyagi, and navy vice chief, Vice Admiral Venkat Bharathan.

[Zain Abbass]

long-standing conventional military superiority

1965 anyone?

[yasser]

They ARE losing supeirority in alot of areas. Its is shocking that they seem so slow or at times even incapable of producing or purchasing much needed items.

[SSAAD]

The otherside of this equation is that this is another attempt to get even more money for advanced purchases.

[john]

Guys, the following reasons are to be blamed for the depletion in strength of the Indian Armed Forces :

Air Force in a tailspin

What is the Ministry of Defence (MoD) taking more seriously: The Chief of Air Staff's letter written to the Defence Minister and leaked to the media; or, its contents that the IAF is losing its cutting edge which has been public for some time now. On Tuesday, an investigation was ordered to enquire into the leak.

The country's economy may have grown at an impressive 8.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2006-07, but national security which is only quantifiable in terms of operational capabilities is in serious decline. The most seriously impaired of the three services is the most potent - air power. The IAF has obviously failed to effectively project its declining regional deterrence because Governments and Ministers in charge of defence and national security do not take their service chiefs seriously till a crisis has erupted. In 1996, a frustrated Chief of Naval Staff (CNS) Admiral Shekhawat, unable to draw the attention of the Government to the dangerous decline in the fleet strength of the Navy was forced to go public that orderbooks in shipyards had gone dry and that the operational decline of the Navy would adversely affect maritime security. Both the Prime Minister and Defence Minister of the day reacted instantly but building security capacities is not an ad hoc business.

The IAF's story is no different from the Navy's. It had to virtually abandon its long-term re-equipment plan as the Five-Year Defence Plans of the combined services, though good on paper, never took off.It is not a well-kept secret that the IAF has slumped from an operational strength of 39.5 squadrons in 1999 to just 27 in 2007 and Pakistan close the gap with a 24-squadron strength. For long the IAF has enjoyed a decisive 2.5:1 advantage in air power over PAF specifically in numbers and quality of aircraft. We are wilfully surrendering that advantage to Pakistan let alone its buddy, China, which is helping it in building JF 17 Fighters and Y 8 Chinese AWACS.

The IAF is in a hopeless situation thanks to the combined mess of the LCA (Tejas) badly driven by ADA/DRDO and HAL and stone walling by the Government. The token order by IAF for 20 LCA has kept the project barely alive. The LCA project has consumed Rs 6,000 crore, 22 years and with no further hiccups will deliver the first operational squadron only by 2012. No one believes this will be possible unless the first two squadrons use imported fire control radars and engines. Not surprisingly, that decision has not been made so far.

So on the eve of the Air Force's 74th Raising Day, there is little to celebrate but much to ponder: How is the IAF going to maintain its air superiority with increasing retirement of ageing aircraft and no induction of new ones. With a big question mark over the delivery capacity and schedule of Tejas, and the Request For Proposals (RFP) for 126 multirole aircraft still being tossed around between North and South Blocks, only one conclusion can be drawn: The Government is ready and willing to accept a substantial decline in India's air power for a more equitable military balance with Pakistan. Few new aircraft are likely to join the IAF Order of Battle for the next 15 years unless some emergency decisions are taken now!

This is a very serious challenge for national security. In 1999, Air Chief Marshal Anil Tipnis is known to have first informed the Government about the problem of declining numbers of operational squadrons. Now it is the turn of outgoing CAS ACM SP Tyagi to remind the Government that the decline in the operational capability of IAF is assuming criticality. In early July he wrote a secret letter to Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee outlining the problem and suggesting interim measures to plug the decline. This letter has reportedly been leaked to the media by the MoD. Strangely, it is the one that has ordered the enquiry.

The three-point Tyagi plan to check the operational decline consists of (a) purchase of 40 Sukhoi MKI in addition to the ones on order; (b) clearance of RFP for 126 MRCAs over which the Government has been sitting mysteriously for nearly two years and (c) India should sound Russia about restraining China from supplying Pakistan with the China-Pak jointly produced JF 17 fighter jet which has a Russian engine.

It is not known if the letter has referred to the exceptionally mismanaged LCA project and lack of Government directive. While the ADA has arrogated to itself the triple role of funding, managing and monitoring LCA, it is time the burden of labour is rationalised. ADA could draw a lesson from Pakistan's own LCA JF 17 which was commissioned much after Tejas but will become operational next year. Clearly, Tyagi is now urging the Government for some fire brigade action to maintain both numbers and quality of aircraft. Soon after he wrote the letter to the Defence Minister, he told the media, "The 126 new fighters will take 15 years. We cannot afford to wait that long. Numbers are falling. Our only option is to get something in a hurry." He warned the Government that the Air Force will nosedive to below the red line of minimum number of combat squadrons Speaking at the USI last year, he said that the IAF would be down to 27 squadrons as early as end 2007.

It is not just the dwindling number of aircraft but also the need to upgrade the existing fleet of MiGs and Jaguars. Not just the combat aircraft require refurbishment but also the ageing transport fleet of IL 76 and AN 32. Never before has there been such a conjugation of demands for new aircraft, midlife upgrade and force multipliers. Besides 126 MRCAs (in addition to 190 Sukhois ordered and partially supplied), 200 Tejas (forget it class) and 40 of the shelf latest Sukhois (tide over Tejas) IAF requires 80 helicopters, another six mid-air refuellers and three Phalcon AWACs. As it is going to be impossible to fund all these in one go, the inductions will have to be staggered but there has to be an approved plan with sanctioned funds. Soon the IAF may not only lose its operational superiority over PAF, but also find it impossible to bridge the growing gap with the PLAAF. These are not glad tidings for air warriors on their raising day.

With the US pumping in $5 billion package of arms to Pakistan, which includes 68 new F 16 and China cementing further its strategic partnership with Pakistan, India will shortly find that the geostrategic advantage it enjoyed in the region has slipped out. The lesson is elementary. A sound economy without a firm foundation in national security is an ungainly risk.

http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnis...t&writer=mehta

The IAF is so desparate, that it wants to make a quick purchase of French and Qatari Mirage-200-V fighters, besides asking Sukhoi for increasing MKI production.

IAF mulls purchase of French Mirage fighters:

For the 1000 T-90S part you may refer this news report :
http://www.dailyindia.com/show/65818...rdware(SPECIAL)

India is selling Myanmar its T-55 tanks that it plans to retire. Everybody is unanimous by now that part of the cause for ordering 1000 T-90S tanks is pure corruption--theres no doubt about that, otherwise why would the order for Arjun be still stuck at 124 ?

[masood]

Most of these news is just alarmists putting pressure on the Indian govt. to further their own agenda, whether it be IAF wanting more a/c or Army pushing for tanks or navy pushing for more toys.
I think the IAF wants to switch to western sources whereas the govt. still prefers the Russian equipment for financial reasons. The strength and the operationability of IAF has not really declined.

[Boota]

Purchase of MRCA's was an interim measure because the LCA did not take off as the replacement for Mig 21s and 27s. Now the MRCA is not taking off they have come up with an interim solution to the interim solution.

[Munir]

Without degrading the report or its intentions e can conclude that the strategic decissions of the Indian parlements concerning new/latest weapons internal or imported is not the best. With less and difficult environment Pakistan has answered atleast at equal level and with adapting technology and new products like Babur, fixed fuel ballistic misiles, El Khaled, High tech diesel subs, Al Khaled, K8, JF17 and now with getting P3c, F16block52 (Pantera, AMRAAM, HMS, AIM9 8/9), erieye and probably in the future J10 (and follow up) it has overtaken the position. In fact India lost the war when they proudly showed their nukes. The fact that Pakistan has offered nuclear free zone and that it answered within few days was a clear sign that big economy was cool but surely not enough. It happened again when Pakistan asked to include cruisemisiles in a treaty... Same Indian arrogance was dashed when not that long after Pakistan showed Babur. Let us forget about paperplane JF17 which is passing LCA with two hands down... I think that Pakistan will even in helpdesks it is a matter of time before they will show better quality. Just look at the growth. The only advantage India has that it is bigger and it has more educated people. But being the smaller and weaker party it means that with less one can achieve better results. If only the anti islam attitude in the world would change...

Back to India... While they are busy with the old Mig21... I do not understand why we have to defend f7PG on Keymag forum... By the way... I bet Indioa will still have Mig21 while PAF will move on to JF17...

[john]

masood, actually the report which I posted mentions the Air Chief's leaked letter to MoD in which he expresses worry about reducing numbers. He expresses fear that PAF numbers may actually equal IAF numbers (26 squads) if urgent action isnt taken. I've highlighted this part in the third paragraph.

Here is the latest from IAF chief today :
PAF F-16s will upset Power balance : IAF Chief

I think that there might be a remote possibility of the MRCA coming in bits and pieces of used French and Qatar Mirage-2000-V plus additional Su-30MKIs plus a further order for 20 more LCAs (in addition to 28 ordered).

[Murad]

Given their concern over recent Pakistan purchases specially Blk-52+ and delays in their own programmes, I see IAF trying to buy additional used Mirage 2000-5. It's not like the Indian NEED the additional aircraft given the almost 200 MKI, 126 MRCA among a host of other aircraft they will have over next decade, but it will make them feel better.

[john]

No Murad, as I mentioned earlier the IAF is augmenting 126 MRCA by 40 French and 12 Qatar Mirages, 40 Su-30s and 20 more Jaguars and LCAs each.
There are so many news reports about IAF chief expressing concern about the rapidly depleting fleet, the latest being his press-conference to the media on IAF's 74th anniversary.

Anyways guys you may find this interesting :
http://www.csirwebistad.org/aesi/pdf/MTA_%20ade_1.pdf

Its a 3.8 MB PDF about Flight-Control Laws of LCA. Shows all components and details of DFCC (Didnt understand about 50% of the matter).

[A Khan]

First he warns the public, now he is trying to cool them down?

Indian airforce to get new planes, systems

NEW DELHI, Oct 5: India will acquire new aircraft, weapon systems and missiles from next year in a bid to boost the capabilities of its airforce, its chief said on Thursday.

Hawk Advanced Trainer Jets would come from Britain’s BAE Systems Plc and an Airborne Warning and Control System would be acquired by 2007, Air Chief Marshal S.P. Tyagi told a news conference ahead of annual Air Force Day on Oct 8.

A airforce spokesman later told Reuters around 50 Hawks and three AWACS, built by Israel on Russian platforms, would be delivered next year.

Tyagi also said India was acquiring two types of missiles — medium-long range missiles and quick-reaction missiles.

“On quick-reaction missiles all negotiations are over and we are awaiting final clearance,” he said, adding the deal should be signed in a month or two.

Military analysts said India had been negotiating with Israel for the “Spyder” surface-to-air missiles to target low-flying aircraft, helicopters and unmanned drones.

India is also planning to purchase six new flight-refuelling aircraft and is also awaiting delivery of 80 medium-size helicopters from next year, Tyagi said.

Tyagi said the airforce was also looking at buying 20 Jaguars and 20 Light Combat Aircraft from Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.—Reuters

http://www.dawn.com/2006/10/06/top17.htm

[A Khan]

India to buy 40 fighter jets from France, Qatar

Updated at 1030 PST
NEW DELHI: India wants to buy about 40 second-hand fighter jets from France and Qatar to bolster its air defenses, the air force chief said.

Air Chief Marshal S. P. Tyagi said that the purchase of French-made Mirage 2000-5 planes would be a stopgap measure until the air force goes ahead with plans to buy 126 new jet fighters.

Tyagi said India wanted to buy about 40 of the jets, including about a dozen from Qatar and the rest from France, and that New Delhi already was holding negotiations with French officials.

He gave no further details about the deal.

The decision follows the announcement earlier this week from Pakistan, that the United States had agreed to supply it with new F-16 fighters.

India is looking at American F-16s and F/A-18 Super Hornets, French Mirages, Swedish Gripens and Russian MiGs for the 126-jet deal.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/updates.asp#10760

so will these be normal mirage 2000-5s or upgraded one's?

[Murad]

John, IAF seems a little too hung up on the number of squadrons. While the number of aircraft is being depleted, the aircraft replacing them or being upgraded are far more capable. Just about every modern airforce currently is going through the same trend. The number of replacement aircraft in each successive generation is less, but they make up for it by their capabilities. The Typhoon and F-35 will not replace the Tornado on a 1:1 basis, Raptor and F-35 will not replace F-16 and F-15 on a 1:1 basis.

When all is said and done just the 180 odd Su-30MKI and the 126 MRCA by themselves will be at least as potent a force if not superior than the entire IAF before Su-30 was first inducted.

[john]

Murad, actually the sanctioned number of squadrons for the IAF is 39, and the Chief of the IAF has repeatedly warned that it would reduce to 26 by 2015 which will be more or less equal to PAF's strength by that time. So the actual number of replacement is the same, (1 : 1).

On top of that, most of those 26 squads will comprise of Soviet-era work-horses like MiG-21, MiG-23, MiG-27, Jags, Harriers. These old ladies cant be applied with upgraded cosmetics forever. So thats why IAF is scavenging for second-hand Mirages, 40 more Su-30MKIs and 20 more Jags.

It must be remembered that IAF's strategics are not centered towards any particular nation (unlike PAF). IAF has China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and rest of East-Asia also to worry about. It does not intend to start an arms race with PAF.

[Zain Abbass]

It must be remembered that IAF's strategics are not centered towards any particular nation (unlike PAF). IAF has China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and rest of East-Asia also to worry about. It does not intend to start an arms race with PAF.

Ahhemm have you ever looked at what planes are located at bases within striking range of Pakistan?

[Fahad L]

It must be remembered that IAF's strategics are not centered towards any particular nation (unlike PAF). IAF has China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and rest of East-Asia also to worry about. It does not intend to start an arms race with PAF.

You are joking!
India's all policies are against Pakistan.The whole world knows it.By the way you forgot to include the name of Bangladesh, Iran and Australia in the list.The fact is that India is a bully! Your country wants to distroy all its neighbours and project its dream of being a super power while millions of your own people rot on the footpaths of your cities and farmer comit suicides on massive scale.Why dont you go and tell your government to change its imperialistic approach toward the other countries in the region and let the people of the region live in peace and harmony.

Regarding India loosing it edge,again the facts are being ignored.What quality and quantity you are talking abou? A country not even 1/3 of your size!
Lets put the record straight and do a small comparison

Indian Navy has aircraft carriers equipped with Harriers and attack helicopters plus Nuclear submrines,Frigates, Scorpene on the way and whatelse.
Indian airforce has
1-Su 30 multirole aircraft, which can operate upto the west coast of australia without refuelling ,not to mention that Su-30 is of its own class in the world.
2-Mig29,which are again highly capabale multirole aircrafts
3-Mirage2000
4-Jaguars and migs with HBOS
5-Airrefuellers
6-Heavy lifters
7-Lca or MRCA on its way
7-Phalcon on its way in 07

Look at Pakistan airforce ,one doesnt need a super wit to find out that its defensive in nature,none of the aircrafts can take on Su-30 .Not to mention the Mirage2000,Mig29 and Mig25s.
The real fact is that India has no threat from outside, infact the threat emerges from inside,Yes [B]from the inside of[/B] your ruling heirarchy ! The Fanatic strategists and RSS and BJP inspired bureacrats and politicians that want to bully,colonize and destroy and demonise thier neighbours, for the sake of their mean desires.
Its high time for people like your self to wake up and tell your people the truth and ask your government to stop its agrressive policies.You cant walk away from this.These are the facts and one day your own poor people will ask this question!

[john]

Zain Abbas, (without any offence), actually we should not deviate from the topic, but since you raised the question, IAF squadrons and forward bases are equally divided in the Central, Eastern, Western, Southern and South Western commands. They range from Srinagar to Tamil Nadu, Ambala to Assam & Mizoram (bordering Myanmar), and upto Andaman & Nicobar Islands (near Indonesia and Malaysia).

You can refer to this site and pages from it for details:
http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Units/Commands.html

[Munir]

lovely article:

Mumbai Police Commissioner pronounced last week that there had been found credible evidence of the involvement of Pakistan's spy agency in planning and executing the train blasts in the city. It prompted Foreign Secretary of India on Wednesday to state that his country would share the investigations with Pakistan to "judge its sincerity in countering terrorism by action on the ground, and not words."


The best advice the US ambassador in Islamabad could give to Shanker Menon was that India should stick to the policy of bilateralism and talk the other party directly before going public. His advice has not gone well with Delhi. "Coming from a democracy like the US, one would have expected Ambassador Crocker to understand that democratic governments have a primary responsibility to keep their own people fully informed [about important issues]," said Navtej Sarna, the spokesman of External Affairs Ministry, next day.

Richard Boucher, the US Assistant Secretary for South Asian and Central Asian Affairs had suggested India the same three months back when it had not heeded to the proposal of General Musharraf that the intelligence communities of the two countries should cooperate with each other to ascertain facts regarding Mumbai blasts.

Boucher's remarks, like that of Crocker, had disappointed Delhi, for his uttering came few days after US had committed at G-8 (the grouping of Industrialized nations) St. Petersburg Summit that it was willing to fight terrorism along with the other member nations.

The foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan are scheduled to meet next month to discuss the modalities of the anti-terror mechanism agreed between Manmohan and Musharraf during the NAM Summit in Havana. The evidence of Mumbai blasts will be handed over to Pakistan on this occasion. So far India has not only made Mumbai Police report public but also shared the evidence with the US authorities in Delhi on Saturday.

Moreover, Manmohan Singh is going to raise the issue with the European leaders at India-EU summit scheduled this week amidst the reports that the NATO commanders of five countries, a day after taking over charge from the US-led coalition, have urged on their respective governments to stop Pakistan from helping Taliban. The Indians want that is diametrically opposed to the interest of the neighbour — a military action of the sorts taken against Taliban.

Earlier this attempt was made by Vajpayee regime. Rebuffed by the US and Britain, India mobilized its own forces on Pakistan's borders and kept them stationing there for ten months. Finally, Vajpayee extended his hand of friendship towards Pakistan. He also visited Islamabad to attend the long-delayed SAARC Summit announcing that India was willing to share its financial and technical resources with neighbours to put the region on the path of prosperity. His party would be defeated in the upcoming general elections.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars, the last resulting into the dismemberment of the later — Congress ruled the roost in India each time. The Simla Agreement followed but the parties have respected the same only to the extent that their regular armies have stayed away from the international border. The cold peace has lasted for three and half decade. The dividends have been have not been less than 8% GDP growth in the two countries.

Wisdom requires India being careful while dealing with the issue of terrorism, particularly when it occurs on its own soil. Blaming a certain community prematurely, that too at official level, is dangerous. Too, India is fast growing economy and thriving democracy. The interplay of the both sometimes generates unmanageable violence due to the collision of powerful interests. Given India's vastness and diversity in terms of cast, color, language and religion, it requires little to fan violence in the polity. Communalism is one problems Indian polity is confronting, ethnicity the other.

Pakistan should not take Indian diplomatic manoeuvres lightly. The experience of Cold War era should guide its decision-makers in this regard. Pakistan has done a thankless job by upholding the British policy of 'Forward Defence' to keep Red Army away from the warm waters of the Arabian Sea. India prospered in the backyard and showed only its miserable face in the hours of need. From closing canals and holding back three rivers of Pakistan to the tragedy of 1971, all stands witness to this reality.

Taliban are not the responsibility of Pakistan after the incidents of 9/11. Their fate remains in the hands of the NATO after US-led coalition has retired. The problems related with the student militia are complicated. They are poor and hopeless; when Pakistan can't feed and clothe them, how it can prevent them from walking a suicidal path? Why it should put its own peace at risk when they are ready for dialogue?

The eastern borders, too, are not manageable without the help of India. How can Pakistan guard LoC, which India can't despite stationing such a large army in the valley? Those who had used Pakistan as a base camp to liberate Afghanistan are now cooperating with it to dismantle the jihadi network. Why not India? Should it not wait till Pakistan returns on the normal course? Why should Pakistan bear the burden of defending long porous borders alone? To what extent it is responsible for the problems of its neighbors who are not ready to bear the cost of their own defense?

Congress has a tradition of embracing communal politics while in power. As far as India remains under its rule, it will keep on throwing its garbage on neighbor's doorsteps. How long Nehruvianism will keep on guiding the affairs of Indian polity? When Indian strategic community will recognize the utility of Mahatma Gandhi's thoughts in regard to realizing peace at home and the regional level.

"We are making no impression in international field because of our arrogance," writes an Indian parliamentarian and veteran journalist, Kuldip Nayar while reacting to India's failure to withstand the competition for the top UN slot. India's best asset, to him, is humility that once helped it to win freedom from mighty British even without firing a single shot. "When we have lost this asset, we need to come out from the superiority complex that has guided our relations with neighbours since 1947," is his suggestion to the 'Manmohan-Sonia nexus'.

Dealing with an 'arrogant' neighbor
Wednesday October 11, 2006 (1409 PST)

Riaz Missen
riazmissen@yahoo.com

[SSAAD]

"We are making no impression in international field because of our arrogance," writes an Indian parliamentarian and veteran journalist, Kuldip Nayar while reacting to India's failure to withstand the competition for the top UN slot. India's best asset, to him, is humility that once helped it to win freedom from mighty British even without firing a single shot. "When we have lost this asset, we need to come out from the superiority complex that has guided our relations with neighbours since 1947," is his suggestion to the 'Manmohan-Sonia nexus'.

The above is the crux of problem with India and Indians these days. The arrogance has spread to all facets of their geo-political thinking and as a result, the smaller countries are also becoming very rigid in their stances towards India.

Very good article no doubt!