
Originally Posted by
syed saad
Yes there would have been escalation across the IB if Siachen had been choked off (however I think it would not have been a full scale war).
My own understanding is that the CoAS, PM, DGMO, FCNA, as well as Gen Aziz and Mahmuds were aware of all that went on. The assumption on the Pakistani side was that the ingress into Kargil would be perceive by the Indians as a continuation of the ongoing Siachen conflict (where both sides have mutually agreed to keep the affair an all-army one without the respective AFs playing any part). This is the gamble that did not work out from the Pakistani planning standpoint.
The availablility of MANPADs in the unit was not an indication that the planners had taken into account the possibility of the IAF getting involved as even units in Siachen are equipped with MANPADs and prior to the recent peace talks, downing of each other' s helis in the Siachen region was a routine issue (BTW, the IAF was not a major player in this whole affair as has been repeatedly made out by the Indian media and the Pakistani detractors of the Kargil planning). In my own research (backed up Indian sources), the much touted LGBs, which supposedly turn the tide of war according to Indians, were used in such a limited number (7) that they may have helped with taking of one or two positions, but along the width of the Kargil front, Pakistanis had taken over 120 positions, 95% of which were vacated voluntarily by us.
The Indian Artillery was more effective (as was Pakistani) but the air support from a tactical standpoint was ineffective and with the downing of their aircraft and helis, the aircraft were under a greater threat than the defenders. From a PR standpoint it gave Indians a plus (since the induction of air support gave the world this impression that things had heated up beyond the normal).
Although now we have the benefit of hindsight, however I too think that had we maintained those positions till the winters, aside from losing a few of the 120 or so positions/piquets, it would have been impossible for the Indians to do anything about it. However, they would have definetly stirred up trouble in other areas.
Coming back to the issue of who was responsible for what, let me just make one point about all of this finger-pointing. The key planners involved are tasked with looking at areas of vulnerability for the Indians and taking advantage of those. MO directorate is constantly churning out proposals and plans and it is upto the senior commanders and then the civilian (or military if the country is being ruled by an officer of the armed forces) leadership to approve or veto the plans. Some people seem to be putting blame on some of the officers for planning this as if they did something wrong. I do not think so. They did what any commander would do in an area which is disputed. Even the Indians agreed initially that the ingress was in a disputed region, as such their planning is no different than what the Indians planned and executed at Siachen. The BS benevolent excuses made by Indians are full of $hit now simply because they themselves have taken advantage of all similar situations whenever a chance has risen.
We should be proud of the guys who planned these ops and tried to execute them becuase tactically and militarily it made sense to put pressure on Indians at Siachen. The fact that the country had been screwed beyond belief economically and politically is the fault of the then civilian leadership. The military saw a chance where they could gain advantage and ran it by the leadership, this was their job! They got the approval and went for it. It was the govts responsibility to ensure that either Pakistan was economically and politically capable of going through such thing or the PM should have called it a no-go. Maybe the civilian leadership did not appreciate the scope of the operation and as such was caught totally illprepared? Don't know, but overall I think it was the right move militariliy against the Indians, geo-strategically, the govt should have done a better job of gauging its implications (in which it failed) and maybe somethings were kept from the government, but after a while, I think both the Army and the Govt went on auto-pilot to see how things turn out.
I agree with Junaid about the logistics issue. I think the planning did not take into account the impact of interdiction of the supply lines. As such units upfront ran short of supplies and ammo.