What countries are backing Pakistan!?

[yasser]

Just read a report in the Bindoo media that Iran and Lybia phoned the urine drinkers in dehli giving their support for the actions they have taken but think it may have been typical Indian media BS, However it got me thinking, the next few weeks could be Pakistan and Indias ultimate confrontation, we may be dimembered as a state if they have their way, or if (should I say when!) our armed forces kick their a**s we will inflict such damage that they will never dare to think about attacking us in the next 100 years, this is not 1971 or 65, we have the military leadership and WILL to let our armed forces loose!
But where does the rest of the world stand!?

US/Europe = Neutral
China = friendly and some material support

What about teh Arab world!!!!!!!!???????
Has a single country expressed support for us!? Now is a time when we will really see who are true friends are!

[afridi]

Pakistan's message to its arab nieghbours, Turkey and to Iran has been that this is a show of force. There is a chance of confrontation, but mostly this is a political affair.

However, Iran's statement was that it would wish for the tension in the region to "be defused". How that is considered as a pro-Indian sentiment, is very interesting. Libya's official statement was that of "dialogue" and a show that "Musharraf's offer of talks" was a "window of opportunity".
I guess that must also mean that they support India.

We must understand the delicacy of international relations. This is not the electoral process for a councillor or MNA.

The bottom line is that Iran, UAE, Saudia and Turkey see no reason why the two countries should exchange blows. Strictly speaking nothing material has changed in India.

Their parliment suffered a shody and "almost too convenient" an attack which left everybody important "miles away from harm".
To destroy a flaky regional stability for a mere "please look at me, please notice me" show is not what concerns these countries.

I think, we, Pakistanis, need to take a more laid back attitude and understand that at stake is 100 seats in Uttar Pardesh. Lets leave our government to play this game of cat and mouse and not accuse our otherwise steadfast "allies" of anything.

If, Khuda-na-khaastaa, it comes to a confrontation, the line taken by many countries will be discreet, similar to the way they did in Bosnia. The press will cry "no support" but on the ground, as always, things will be different.

[H Khan]

Gulf Arabs appeal for calm in India and Pakistan


MUSCAT, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Foreign ministers from six Gulf Arab countries, fearing a spill over of the rising tension between Indian and Pakistan, appealed on Saturday to the two Asian rivals to refrain from military confrontation.

Millions of Indians and Pakistanis work in oil-rich Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain -- members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) whose leaders will start a two-day meeting in Oman on Sunday.

"We discussed the Indian-Pakistani issue and consulted with both countries' foreign ministers. We hope that both sides will use all means and refrain from any military confrontations," Omani Foreign Minister Youssef bin Alawi Abdullah told reporters after nearly four hours of talks with his GCC counterparts.

The two nuclear-armed rivals have massed troops along their borders in the biggest such build-up in 15 years following an attack on the Indian parliament on December 13, which New Delhi blames on Pakistan-based militant groups.

"We (the Gulf states) have a large manpower contingency from both countries and we don't want to see them suffer from any conflict in their countries," Abdullah said.

Abdullah said the ministers would suggest to their leaders that they talk to India and Pakistan. It was not immediately known if the GCC would offer to mediate.

14:19 12-29-01

[yasser]

Thanks H Khan

In 1971 the Jordanians gave us a sqd of F-104s and the Lybians gave us a sqd of F-5's, I know we have been over this hundreds of times in Pakdef but if war happens tommorrow, we will not have time to mess around with different aircraft types we need allies to offer us

F-16's
Mirage 3/5
Mirage 2000

Its only these types that we have the trained pilotsn for and we can induct immidiately into a short war

Jordan = 2 sqds of F-16A/B

Eygpt = 6 sqds F-16A/B/C/D + 2 sqds of Mirage 2000 + 4 sqds of Mirage 5, but they have not been to supportive of us in the past

Libya = about 4 sqds of Mirage 5

Turkey = 8 sqds F-16C/D

UAE = 2 sqds of Mirage 2000 + 2 sqds of Mirage 5

Bahrain 2 x sqds F-16A/B/C/D

Saudi = will they lend us an AWAC!!!???

If this thing does boil over (big if I know) this is what will help us most from our allies, China could spare a couple of F-7 sqds but these machines will not be of PAF standard!

[A Haider]

We bought the F-7 aircraft, because if there was a war on attriation we could easily get this aircraft.

[Amer M]

If this thing does boil over (big if I know) this is what will help us most from our allies, China could spare a couple of F-7 sqds but these machines will not be of PAF standard!

Thats right. Chinese F7s are not wired to fire the Aim-9 or magic2 and only use a ranging radar, thus useless in the air defence role, though they have a nuisance factor. They would be useful for air-ground sorties using unguided rockets and dumb bombs.

[Malghani]

Some body in the Flight International (FI) Orbat thread wondered why they mentioned that Pakistan had 210 F-7s instead of 160.
Well I've been waiting for a while to throw this theory out and see what sort of response it gets. Here goes.

I believe the orbat also included the two squadrons of F-7s that were transfered from China during the Kargil conflict. And the article that mentioned that China had transferred two squads to Pakistan also mentioned that China had placed additional two squads of F-7 near the Kashmir border so that they could be transferred on a short notice. The article can be found in the archives of Pakdef News section. I'll try looking for it and post the link over here. They only reason why FI mentioned 210 could be that those aircraft never went back to China and stayed with PAF.

Well so guys what do you think???

[Toor]

Originally posted by yasser
Thanks H Khan

In 1971 the Jordanians gave us a sqd of F-104s and the Lybians gave us a sqd of F-5's, I know we have been over this hundreds of times in Pakdef but if war happens tommorrow, we will not have time to mess around with different aircraft types we need allies to offer us

F-16's
Mirage 3/5
Mirage 2000

Its only these types that we have the trained pilotsn for and we can induct immidiately into a short war

Jordan = 2 sqds of F-16A/B



Eygpt = 6 sqds F-16A/B/C/D + 2 sqds of Mirage 2000 + 4 sqds of Mirage 5, but they have not been to supportive of us in the past

You are right here, Eygpt will never do that, even though Pervaiz M id trying his best to court Hasni Mubarak.
Libya = about 4 sqds of Mirage 5

Turkey = 8 sqds F-16C/D

UAE = 2 sqds of Mirage 2000 + 2 sqds of Mirage 5

Bahrain 2 x sqds F-16A/B/C/D

Saudi = will they lend us an AWAC!!!???

If this thing does boil over (big if I know) this is what will help us most from our allies, China could spare a couple of F-7 sqds but these machines will not be of PAF standard!

No chance from them.


I do not think any of these Arab/Muslim countries will/can supply us Aircraft, may be UAE, but that is a big may be, however there are many other things which we will need/require which are not easily traceable and hopefully supplied by some of the friendly countries named above. Eygpt is definitely not going to help us even though PM has been trying to court Hasni Mubarak for some time.

Chinese rule is going to be very important even without the F-7 during and after the conflict( I hope that we do not have one).

Right now we have to work with what we have.

HT

[Farooq]

Assuming 210 F7's, 32 F16's, over 100 Mirages, and around 50 A5's, that would bring the total PAF strength to around 400 (very rough figures) as opposed to the 350 being mentioned in the news.

With India having around 800, then surely the ratio is around 1:2 as opposed to the touted 1:3 or 1:4.

Although if you then include the multiple target engagement capabilities of the Mig 29/M2k/Su30, then the effective ratio does increase to around 1:3 to 1:4.

Again all the above are very rough guestimates.

[Wasif Rashid]

This is all we need. It's amazing how many creepy crawlies emerge from under the rocks when Pakistan is down.

I rememeber in '71 after the dismemeberment , Mufti Mahmood ( father of FazlurRehman) issued a statement saying how wise he and the rest of his ilk were in not supporting the creation of Pakistan. Well let us see just how strong Maulana Rehman's commitment is to Jehad and fighting the infidel. The time is upon us by the looks of it!!



Islamabad: Missing the bus
Benazir Bhutto
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pakistan’s official quarters cheered as the military regime added one billion dollars more to the country’s heavy debt burden in an agreement with the IMF. It was better to avoid cheering.
Pakistan’s crushing debt burden denies it political freedom in decision making. The repeated military interventions led to the country’s economic collapse. Now, each governmental decision is taken considering its impact on lenders. Islamabad has lost its freedom.

A golden opportunity to regain lost independence came Islamabad’s way. It came in the aftermath of great tragedy and loss of human life — the attack on the WTC. In other international crises, Jordan and Egypt were able to have their huge debts written off. The present regime missed the bus, preferring debt payment postponement.

With democracy derided, there appears little chance that Islamabad can begin its climb-back from the position of supplicant. The question that comes to the fore is — Can nations that are highly indebted truly be free?

Islamabad’s current economic policy is to remain in the good books of the lending countries. The lenders’ view is dependent on political events. The present mood of the lenders is a bonanza for Islamabad’s dictatorship. On the other hand, the challenges it poses could swiftly unravel the administration. The external forces unleashed new political alignments that led to the abandonment, at least overtly, of some of the most cherished policy goals of the Musharraf regime.

This included, first, the long-standing romance between Islamabad’s establishment and the rigid Taliban leadership. By compulsion, the General threw in his lot with the international coalition. Grudgingly, Islamabad distanced itself from the Taliban, agreed that they could fall and finally, long after the latter’s rout from Kabul, broke off ties with them. Islamabad had to open feelers to the Northern Alliance and to the King. Each grudging step was taken after events dictated the conclusion.

This out-of-tune thinking was reflected in the military ruler asking the US to stop the Northern Alliance from entering Kabul. That helpless plea is the defining image of Islamabad’s inability to predict political events in its own backyard.

The second cherished goal of the Musharraf regime, now abandoned, was the policy of strategic depth. Having invested two decades, human lives, resources and personnel in the strategic depth policy, the regime failed in salvaging it.

It wasted the moment for an in-house change by constantly harping on the “bombing during Ramadan”. This alerted the international community to Islamabad’s time scale for change. The west turned its gaze from General Musharraf in the south to General Dostum in the North. Kabul fell before Ramadan. The policy of strategic depth fell with it too.

The policy of strategic depth based on support for a particular political party put Islamabad’s eggs in one basket. The idea was that a “friendly” Taliban government in Kabul could provide a stable western front in Islamabad’s ongoing tension with the eastern neighbour India.

The support for the Taliban produced many sub-relations in the bodypolitic of Pakistan. This included linkages between the military, religious and militant groups.

Will Kabul affect Kashmir?

Given the break in the alliance between the military, intelligence, religious and militant groups over the Taliban, there is a question whether that break will remain a “strategic” one confined to the events of Kabul or will there be a break whose fault lines cut across a larger canvas. It could then impact the Kashmir freedom struggle.

So far, there have been few explanations and fewer answers. Having abandoned the policy of strategic depth in Kabul and the Taliban, the third test for the military establishment is to see whether it abandons its domestic linkages.

The military establishment justifies its ties with the religio-political parties as essential given the situation in the disputed Kashmir Valley. Therefore, Musharraf’s fourth test will be how he handles the crackdown on religio-political groups in the movement in J&K.

When Pakistan joined the anti-terror campaign, there was high hope that the American administration would reward Islamabad with economic benefits and resolve the J&K dispute according to Pakistan’s wishes.

But the war concluded more quickly than Islamabad calculated. The leverage that Islamabad expected to enjoy was suddenly curtailed. Islamabad again missed the bus.

A challenge for Islamabad comes from its disputed Afghan border at the Durand Line. With the Pashtun population alienated, the tribal areas in uproar and the uncertain fallout of the latest Afghan war, a new ethnic problem could arise. Pashtun militancy and nationalism is on the rise. Given that the borders between the two countries were non-existent since the eighties, Pashtuns got used to crossing seamlessly between Kandahar and Quetta or Peshawar and Jalalabad.

Another challenge is the one posed by the Pakistani fighters killed or arrested during the war. The military establishment had close ties with the fighters under the policy of strategic depth. With that policy in tatters, the question arises as to what is to become of the fighters, their dead bodies, their next of kin, the captured ones in the prisons of Kabul. Moreover, what explanation will be given to their families? Or will they too be abandoned as those abandoned in Kargil?

General Musharraf makes small secret of his desire to retain the presidency of Pakistan. Yet, the base he established is crumbling. The democratic parties that gave crucial support at the time of the coalition remain at odds with the regime. They insist on their conditions for the release of political prisoners, the withdrawal of politically-motivated cases and implementation of their reforms ensuring a fair election. But Musharraf wants to occupy the total political space.

This policy, contingent on Musharraf’s position as army chief, drives deep wedges with the front runners for next October’s general elections.

The religious parties are themselves up in arms. They feel betrayed by an establishment that supported them and then left them out in the cold.

The new political parties that the establishment tried to create failed to take off. The national mood is sour. There is anger that although Islamabad was the front line state in the battle against terrorism, its leaders mismanaged the dividend.

Every defeat demands a sacrificial lamb. While the Musharraf regime holds the political leaders in contempt, it can hardly do the same with military officers and soldiers.

The country wants answers

A nation (and armed forces) that supported a Taliban-driven Afghan policy with religious militants is looking for answers to what went wrong.

The military constituency is asking about direction and dividends. It was tasked to defend the policy of strategic depth, to support the Taliban and to see the private militias and the madrasas as the patriots and the citadels of Islam. With the Musharraf regime threatening to come down against militia and the madrasas, although only in words so far, the man in uniform is asking why Pakistan considered it in its own security interest to change course.

Otherwise the perception that, like Nawaz Sharif at the time of the Kargil withdrawal, Musharraf was dictated to, can be damaging to the morale, self-esteem and the notions of honour and courage that the Pakistani soldier is equipped with.

The abandonment of a policy gone wrong demands a sacrificial lamb. The military regime could well become the scapegoat unless it can broaden its political base.

Public mood in Islamabad teeters with fear of worse to come. There is an unspoken concern that the battle against Afghanistan could come home to roost in the madrasas of Pakistan.

The regime could use the situation as a defining moment to redirect the goals of the army. This could happen by changing it from a Politically-motivated institution into one which is the finest force in the region, able to defend the geographical borders as well as to take an active part in the world of peace-keeping.

The redefining of the Pakistani army into a nationalistic force is linked to creating a positive environment to safeguard the country’s nuclear assets. There is an enormous international apprehension that Pakistan’s nuclear assets could fall into the hands of militant groups. The coup attempt by Brigadier Billah Muntasir is one cause of concern for such an attempt.

The military establishment was heavily involved in the political restructuring of Afghanistan ever since Soviet tanks rolled into Kabul in 1979. The swearing in of the Karzai government under the United Nations umbrella in December 2001 seriously curtails that role.

The over load of an over ambitious security agenda helped drain the Pakistan economy. Some weep tears over the loss of the strategic depth that a Taliban Afghanistan promised. Yet, it could be the relieving of a burden too heavy for the Pakistani people to carry.

The tide of events in Kabul is washing up political debris that could clog the Pakistani landscape. The Musharraf regime could hope that the West repays its support with political power. But the hands of the West are full with the fall out of Kabul. The regime needs to give confidence back to a Nation. And there is more to come as the policy of dumping militants and the madrasas is enforced. This will impact on linkages formed between the military establishment and such groups.

Musharraf was once a key Zia aide, selected it is said, to be Zia’s military secretary just before he died. Now he must decide whether to continue with the forces of the past or to rise above past prejudices and throw in his lot with the forces of the future.

[Gaf]

The figure of 210 for the F7s is highly suspect, i believe that 165(from PIADs) odd is closer to the truth + another 10 F7MGs making 175 planes.

The number of quoted Mirages is about 130(from Flight International)(although PIADs quotes about 184, as of 1999). In addition lets not forget the F6s. Admitted that they are obsolete in terms of their A-A capabilities, they would nonetheless be useful in A-G against Indian armour and troops.

However, the above figure doesnot reflect the actual aircraft available for combat, as some of the Mirages and F7s maybe in some intensive maintenance cycles which would render them as not flyable, unless PAF can put them together quickly and is prepared to use them.

A basic orbat would be:
F16s : 32
F7P/PG/MG : 175
Mirage 3/V : 130
A5s : 45(?)
F6's : 45(?)
=============
Total 427
=============

The above is a simple addition of all the information i can gather at this point in time, if people have more information to add, then we can refine the above list.

The ratios between the IAF and PAF are quoted by PAF in terms of qualitative difference and not quantative difference. The quoted values seems to be 7-1 to 6-1 favouring the IAF (from Defence Journal mags.). I am not sure how the recent upgrades of the F7s, Mirages tip the balance in Pakistans favour.

Maybe RMS Azam can give a better view of our Orbat at present and operational readiness.

[H Khan]

Wasif sahib,

The name of this woman makes me puke.

[Wadi]

Originally posted by yasser
Just read a report in the Bindoo media that Iran and Lybia phoned the urine drinkers in dehli giving their support for the actions they have taken

Argh, I guess we should start barking at dogs now. Why the kachra language?

Iran and Lybia phoned them?? Wow, so like the whole population was rounded up and expressed their undying support. Buddy, both these countries have diplomatic relations with India and I sure it was nothing but diplomatic mumbo jumbo.

but think it may have been typical Indian media BS

They have to BS, how else would they get the honor of being banned in Pakistan?

However it got me thinking, the next few weeks could be Pakistan and Indias ultimate confrontation,

Did the thought excite you?

we may be dimembered as a state if they have their way, or if (should I say when!) our armed forces kick their a**s we will inflict such damage that they will never dare to think about attacking us in the next 100 years, this is not 1971 or 65, we have the military leadership and WILL to let our armed forces loose!

Brother all this pep talk is making me puke, now can you please wake up and look at things (a tad) objectively.

But where does the rest of the world stand!?

Behind Uncle, waiting for the command. Just let them throw the stick and all the worlds bi****s will fetch (Argh, now i gotta clean my mouth with soap )

[Aziz]

The indian Mig29's, Mk2000's and su30's cause us the greater danger.

India is said to currently have 66 Mig29's - but i am not sure about the numbers i.e. due to attrition and those in maintenance.

India currently has 35 Mirage2000H's

India has ordered 50 Su30MK1's and is going to licence produce a further 150. However I have no idea how many have been delivered. I know that an initial 8 were delivered and there have been some deliveries since but the fact is that no ore than 25 are in service and at least 2 have been sent back to Russia to be used as weapons and avionics testbeds for intended true multi-role capability.

Does anyone know of the status of the AA-12 in Indian service, i.e. the numbers. Also the Mirage 2000's were delivered in the mid 80's then BVR missiles were some what of a luxury, I know that India has ordered a further 10 Mirages and has an upgrade agreement with Dassault, do the Indians currently have BVR's for their mirages?

Aziz

[Amer M]

Aziz,

IAF currently has 18 Su30MK's which are essentially Su27UB's but with upgraded avionics, radar and indian navigational kit. This was their inventory as of Nov'99 and no aircraft have been added since. The initial batch were used Su27UB's and the latter 10 were those initially for Indonesia - these 10 have PGM capabilities.

AFAIK, all 18 will be upgraded to -MKI format once the remaining 32 arrive.

Their Mirage2000's carry the BVR Matra Super530 missile.

The AA-12's remain a mystery. Probably still on order, awaiting delivery. Until then their main BVR missile is the AA10 Alamo.

[Gaf]

According to "BR". The baboons have 40 Mirage 2000H's, 69 Mig29's and 18 Su30K's.

BR also claims that Mirage2000s have been "wired" to fire Russian BVR missiles.

That makes a total of 124 top of the line fighters against 32 of the PAF, a ratio of about 4:1.

Given that India has been planning the "stage managed" incident at Parliment for quite a while, i would say that it is safe to assume that all of the above listed aircraft have been returned to operational readiness.

[Malghani]

F-16 aircraft has been reduced. He claimed that 30 Mirages are equivalent to F-16 fleet as so far their avionics are concerned plus its theirmodernization programme with Italian radars fitted on it. "It has added new offensive capability in the PAF fleet, as the Mirages
modernization programme would be completed in June 2002," he said. "If you start playing games on Pentium-3 computers, that's up to
you. But being a professional man, I do not believe in number or size of the force but its capability," said CAS Mushaf Mir.

This quote comes from his interview that is posted here: http://www.pakdef.info/pids/index.html

It goes to show that numbers really don't matter. Plus we have some very advanced Mirages in our inventory, there airframes might be old but these pupps are definetly going to be a pain for the Indian war planners.


A bit off the topic:
Can anybody confirm this for me.
I read on the web that the two A-5 squads are divided among the two Strike Corps?

[Malghani]

Oh I almost forgot.

Man if anybody thinks that Indian Airforce is tougher than PAF. Than this story (indirectly) should put their fears at rest.

Taj Mahal 'to be
camouflaged'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/wor...00/1732993.stm

This tells us how much confidence India has on its defense forces.

I seriously doubt that Pakistan is going to destroy one of the greatest icons of Muslim rule over India. But hey that doesn't mean the baboons across the border are going to stop with their propaganda crap.

If anything PAF's initial target is going to be Ambala (M2K peacetime base) Which is west of Dehli where as Agra which is east of Dehli.

Any way I'm more worried about Indians martyring our cherished Mosques.

[yasser]

Wadi
Take it easy dude, just because I am fed up with the Bindoos and hope they get a good kicking I don't see why you are getting so wound up, no war does not excite me, especially when it means that there are children and wives in Pakistan no who will forever lose their fathers and husbands, but what about the 16 airmen killed in the Atlantic, it seems to me you would like us to bow our heads and accept this!?
No thanks! Alot of us on this forum have relations in the armed forces of Pakistan, including myself, we would never dream of losing our loved ones, but Pakistan is not a coward nation........

Malghani
Seems logical, from what I have heard the PAF would never consider sending in A-5's into India as these planes would not stand a chance against their air defences around their airfields and the PAF may retire them soon, it seems quite logical that they could be dedicated to ground attack to support the strike corps, this could be with cluster bombs and the awsome 30mm Nuddleman Richcter cannon that the aircraft carries

[RMS Azam]

I have been told that a UAEAF Mirage 5 Squadron has arrived in Pakistan and has been repainted PAF colours. This has been a long-standing promise of the UAE - that in time of war, UAE will transfer this Squadron to PAF.

[Gaf]

RMS Azam,

Only mirage 5's... man, we could do with some of their 2000's !

A squadron, is that 12 aircraft or a PAF squadron size of 22 ?

I guess that al PAF can get, will help. If this story is true, then UAE is the only country to 'actually' support Pakistan.

[yasser]

Depends yaar
In Nato I think 18 aircraft is standard sqd size, both PAF F-16 sqds have 16 aircraft each, but our F-7 and Mirage sqds tend to be very big 20 - 25 aircraft as these undergo overhaul often so they need larger numbers........

[RMS Azam]

UAE had 26 Mirage Vs in 1987. They should have 20 or so left. We may be talking about their entire Mirage V fleet.

As for the UAE M2K-5s. Who knows. At this moment it may be too early to say. If PAF feels the pressure these may be transferred for homeland defence ops only, as opposed to offensive ops over India, which may create a diplomatic row between India and the UAE.

PAF squadrons in the past have varied from 10 to 20 aircraft. Ideally, a PAF squadron comprises of 12 operational aircraft and 4 reserves or 14 aircraft and 4 reserves. The reserves are not in storage but are those aircraft undergoing maintenance at any given time - i.e. they are being rotated.

[Amer M]

Seems logical, from what I have heard the PAF would never consider sending in A-5's into India as these planes would not stand a chance against their air defences around their airfields and the PAF may retire them soon, it seems quite logical that they could be dedicated to ground attack to support the strike corps, this could be with cluster bombs and the awsome 30mm Nuddleman Richcter cannon that the aircraft carries

Using A5s to support Strike Corps means sending them into indian airspace as the whole of strike corps is to operate in enemy territory. So they'll have to face Indian defences. Risky business, though if used, I suspect the decision is based upon its superior payload and notably range over both the F6 and F7.

BTW I have to comment on this Taj cammo thing. The reasoning may be because in the past PAF pilots used its lights as a navigational marker on their way to the indian airbase. Thats what I've heard anyway.

[RMS Azam]

Originally posted by Amer M

BTW I have to comment on this Taj cammo thing. The reasoning may be because in the past PAF pilots used its lights as a navigational marker on their way to the indian airbase. Thats what I've heard anyway.

Fortunately for Pakistan and unfortunately for India, the PAF has now replaced the Taj Mahal Navigation Guidance System (TMNGS) with something called GPS.