Army believes Kashmir freedom is near
India seeks face-saving for resolution of crisis
By Kamran Khan
KARACHI: Pakistani military leadership under President General Musharraf is "absolutely confident" that the freedom struggle in Kashmir has entered a crucial phase where an Indian military adventurism along the Line of Control or the working boundary would trap the Indian army in a Vietnam or Afghanistan-like situation and hasten the freedom process for the Kashmiri Muslims.
Interviews with officials, familiar with the current thinking at the General Headquarters (GHQ), revealed the government of Pakistan has also determined that the recent international efforts for mediation, particularly from Russia, represent an implicit Indian desire to extricate itself from an untenable diplomatic and military posture.
"In such a situation when the much awaited phase of international diplomacy is just beginning, how can we give India a head start," says a senior official, explaining the logic behind General Musharraf's hard-line address to the nation on Monday. "Actual concessions to India can only be part of give and take during bilateral negotiations."
Relevant Pakistani officials believe that the robust military preparedness by the Pakistani Army, Navy, Air Force -- all three forces now equipped with tactical nuclear weapons -- and an expected "impetus" to anti-military guerrilla activities by the freedom fighters may turn the Indians' dream for a decisive war in Kashmir into a nightmare for the Indian military.
This military perception, enunciated very recently by the Military Operations Directorate, Commander Corps 10, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and other relevant military formations, contributed to the General Musharraf's address to the nation during which he resolutely refused to give further concessions to the Indian military on Monday.
General Musharraf, a veteran of 1965 and 1971 wars with India, is also considered to be one of the most important architects of the military's Kashmir strategy. The general had gained a rare insight into India's military capabilities, while serving as Pakistan Army's Director-General Military Operations (DGMO) in the early 1990s.
A military source said: "Operational plans on Kashmir made under Musharraf at the MO (Military Operations Directorate) still form the core of the current strategy of the Pakistan Army in Kashmir."
He added: "As far as the military strategy and planning is concerned, Gen Musharraf is far ahead than the ageing Indian prime minister." Last week, General Musharraf and the top brass of Pakistani military establishment decided to stand firm on Kashmir policy after unanimously agreeing that the recent military posturing by India may ultimately push the Indian military into an even deeper strategic quagmire in Kashmir. "Which army of the world can wage war when it is being attacked by its own people from right, left, front and the back," asked a senior Pakistani military source. "Once the hostilities break out, can anyone perceive any other scenario for the Indian army in Kashmir."
To meet the likely military scenario in Kashmir, one of the most important military moves made recently by the GHQ was to deploy a major chunk of Pakistani Special Services Groups (SSG) commandos all along the Line of Control for penetration -- in case of Indian military strike -- into held Kashmir, where friendly population and battle-hardened Kashmiri guerrillas are desperate to embrace them for a decisive military push, leading to complete liberation.
Sources close to two banned Jihadi groups have, meanwhile, disclosed in separate interviews in Karachi that they were "not bothered" by the recent decision of the military government to take new measures to block the traffic of freedom fighters from Pakistan into held Kashmir.
Responding to suggestions from the US government, the Pakistani military leaders had decided last week to introduce new security measures to stop the movement of Kashmiri militants from Azad Kashmir to held Kashmir. "Three layers of security positions manned round the clock by the heavily armed Indian troops can't stop us from reaching destinations well inside Kashmir Valley," vowed a Jihadi, who gave his name as Abu Hamza. "How can Pakistani troops do something that 12 divisions of Indian army so grossly failed to achieve," he adds.
Other Jihadi sources said that because of favourable weather condition hundreds of fresh militants had entered Kashmir in April and in the first three weeks of the current month, until a few days before the military government announced fresh measures to stop infiltration into held Kashmir.
Local Jihadi sources have revealed that in the past few weeks they received numerous calls for help from various Muslim groups in Indian state of Gujarat and Maharashtra, where thousands of Muslims were killed and their properties were destroyed in the worst anti-Muslim riots that had erupted in March this year. "In the wake of a war with Pakistan, Indian Muslims would give the biggest surprise to Indian security forces all over mainland India," Abu Hamza remarked.
President Musharraf's Monday's speech in general and his remarks about attacks on Muslims, Christians, Sikhs and scheduled caste by "extremist Hindu terrorists" appear to have won him a rare appreciation from the Pakistani militant religious quarters. "The freedom struggle in Kashmir has primed to a point where the final push for liberation seems to be the logical next phase," says (retd) Colonel Salman Ahmed, one of the most reputed special forces officer of the Pakistan Army. "Neither can we nor the Indian army forget what happened in the former East Pakistan, where the Indian army has timed its military intervention with the full bloom insurgency," says Col Salman, who thought that the Indian leadership would commit a Himalayan blunder by igniting a military confrontation in Kashmir. "Kashmir is going to repeat the scenes of insurgency and the final acts of a liberation struggle seen in the last days of former East Pakistan, but now the key actors have changed sides," declared Col Salman.
Pakistan military sources also draw some comfort from the fact that an unprecedented concentration of Indian military resources in Kashmir has stripped India of numerical superiority of its troops deployed along the international borders. "For a conventional military ground offensive, a numerical superiority of 3:1 is usually desired but because of heavy concentration in Kashmir, Indian military can hardly maintain that kind of numerical strength along the international borders," says an official source. For its part, Pakistani official sources said, a favourable situation on ground in Kashmir allows complete strategic manoeuvrability for the strike corps of the Pakistan Army positioned at Mangla and Multan.
Informed sources said that to meet an all-out war situation with India, the Strategic Command Force -- the central military organisation that control Pakistan's nuclear assets -- was reviewing the recent reported movement of tactical nuclear weapons by the Indian forces. "All the money, research and energy spent on developing tactical and strategic assets would go waste if we do not meet this great threat to the security of Pakistan by keeping these assets wrapped somewhere in lock and key," commented a senior Pakistani official.
As the Pakistan Navy successfully test-fired a medium range ship-to-ship missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead on Tuesday, flotilla of Pakistan Navy frigates and submarines was engaged in aggressive patrolling of the sea, senior Pakistani officials said. The Pakistan Navy has also commissioned its surveillance aircraft such as P-3 Orion and Atlantique to collect real-time maritime intelligence on Indian naval patrolling.
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