China's base in the Maldives?
China may have clinched a deal with the Maldives to build a naval facility capable of hosting submarines on the island of Marao, 40 km from the capital Male. According to the Israeli website DEBKA, the deal may have been signed and sealed in May this year during Premier Zhu-Rongji's visit to Male. It will allow China to lease the island for 25 years and develop it, which means jobs for the locals. Pakistan apparently, was instrumental in 'persuading' the Maldives to lease the island to the Chinese. The island will be operational in 2010. It's not clear how India, given its excellent relations with the Maldives, allowed this deal to go through.
http://www.stratmag.com/
Significance of Chinese military presence to the Maldives
IF the news report of China establishing a naval facility on the Maldives is true and just for a moment lets say it is then as a lot of memebers are suggesting, the US and India would oppose such a move.
However will Male take heed of US and Indian warnings and reject Beijings attempts to gain a presence in the Indian ocean through the useage of Maldivian territory? this is the question that has to be answered in order to determine whether Beijings attempts will bear fruit in the near future.
Since independence in 1965 Male has defined its foreign policy to take a strict non alignment stance, even on regional issues e.g. when Pakistan and India became nuclear powers Male advocated Colombos proposals to make the Indian Ocean a Zone of Peace, the Pakistan-initiated Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone in South Asia, as well as the now-lapsed proposal to declare Nepal a Zone of Peace. Going back in history the Maldives have always asserted their autonomy and sovereignty by refusing any foreign powers rights to establish a miltary installation on the Gan island e.g. In 1977, Male refused a USD 1 million offer from the Soviet Union to use the island for its fishing fleets, and later it rejected a suggestion of hosting a "recreational facility" for American troops based in Diego Gracia. Similarly, in 1982 Male rejected a Singaporean firm's bid to buy the Maldive fish catch only because it was to use Soviet ships. Taking this into account it questions US ability to actually pressurise Male into rejecting Chinese use of its territory.
Their is a common perception that India enjoys very close relationship with the Maldives and their is a considerable Indian influence on the islands. This may be true to a certain extent today, however this was not the case in the past. The role India plays today was one that Sri Lanka played in the past. Indian involvement, until 1988, was somewhat limited to socio-economic development. The Indo-Maldivian relationship did not posses the irritants that Indian realtionships with its other neighbours does, apart from one minor 'hiccup' in their relations when Presidents Ghayoom brother Abdul Hameed declared he Minicoy islands an integral part of the Maldives, which raised alarm bells in New Delhi. It was later clarified that Abdul Hameed regarded the Minicoy islands to be a part of the Maldives in religous and cultural terms. While recently, Sri Lankas interaction with Maldives has not been on the scale of India, Male still regards their relations with Sri Lanka to be of significance importance as President Ghayoom once stated Sri Lanka to be the "gateway" for the Maldives' to the world. It is important to note that Sri Lanka's share of Maldives' imports were 65% in the 1970s, compared to India's negligible 0.03% share. It was Sri Lanka and NOT India that enjoyed greater interaction in the political, economical, social and cultural spheres.
However, India was able to overtake Sri Lankas role, when in 1988, a coup attempt by a group of Maldivians supported by Tamil Tigers was thwarted by Indian intervention. This created hatred amongst the Maldivian people for Sri Lanka, although the Sinhalese condemned the attack the Maldivian public still did posses a hatred for everything remotely considered Sri Lankan - LTTE. This event brought the Maldivian people and India closer. However, the government maintained its relations with Colombo albeit not at the levels once enjoyed by the two capitals, in the past, but President Ghayoom still saw Sri Lanka as the gateway to the world for the Maldives. Given Colombo and Male continued interaction on the political level and Male's view of Sri Lanka as the gateway to the world, I would not be surprised if Islamabad used its influence on Sri Lanka as a mediator when dealing with Male, to achieve its objectives. Afterall, it would be in Sri Lanka's interest as well to have force to counter Indian dominance of its neighbouring island - Maldives. Not only that but it will assist Colombo in restrengthening its interaction with the Maldives, on the economic; social and cultural, to the levels it enjoyed during the 70s before the coup attempt. (read below of significance of Chinese military presence to the Maldives).
Now that the stage has been set I can go on to talk about the proposed Chinese military installation on Maldivian territory. Yes the Maldivian foreign policy has been defined by a strict non-allignment stance, however, if the reports are true then this shows Male's willingness to enage other powers so as to act as a 'counter' or 'stabilisng affect' to a power that has come to dominate the Maldivian economy and society, in the recent years. A power that is rapidly building up its naval assests to project power and domination throughout the Indian Ocean - India. This does not mean to say that Male is abandoning is policy of strict non alignment, by allowing Chinese military presence on its territory but in fact such a move wll reinforce Male's commitment to non alignment by allowing its territory to be ustilised by a power that will act as a counter weight to Indian influence over the Maldives. Currently, India enjoys no military presence in the Maldives but it does enjoy a considerable amount of economic and social influence over the islands which in turn influences the political establishment for greater political interaction and poltical alignment with New Delhi. Something which would negate Males non alignment stance.
A Chinese military presence on the island will pave the way for future economic investment and open up a regular interaction with the political establishments in Beijing and Male. If such interaction on the economic, political and military levels continue on a regular basis it will act as a counter to Indian growing dominance on the islands. The Maldives credibility, as a small power eager to retain her autonomy and sovereignty, just reaffirms the motives for Male to allow a Chinese military presence. Although the military pesence of a foreign power is not the best way to demonstrate ones commitment to retaining their sovereignty and such a move will shift Males commitment to maintaining a nonalignment stance from a strict approach to a more liberal one. But such moves are necessary in light of the Indian ambitions to dominate the Indian Ocean and Indian ambitions for the Maldives to play an important role in the IN aspirations for the Indian Ocean - which would negate Males non alignment stance.