China's base in the Maldives?

China may have clinched a deal with the Maldives to build a naval facility capable of hosting submarines on the island of Marao, 40 km from the capital Male. According to the Israeli website DEBKA, the deal may have been signed and sealed in May this year during Premier Zhu-Rongji's visit to Male. It will allow China to lease the island for 25 years and develop it, which means jobs for the locals. Pakistan apparently, was instrumental in 'persuading' the Maldives to lease the island to the Chinese. The island will be operational in 2010. It's not clear how India, given its excellent relations with the Maldives, allowed this deal to go through.

http://www.stratmag.com/

doesn't Britain have a base in the maldives as well?

Anyway this is the first sign of China's ambitions in the region which America fears most. China becoming worlds biggest economy within the next 10 years provided the current economic boom is maintained.

If Pakistan has such influence in the maldives then why cant we have bases there as well to counter the indian threat?

actually China will be building the submarine base itself. It is not easy to build these bases especially overseas for your own use. You need a lot o capital which we don't have and I am sure PN will be using this base also. if Pakistan really persuaded them to have a chinese base then it means both the countries will be using it.

If true and if the deal materialises, it could have significant implications for the balance of power in Indian Ocean. Indian Ocean is an American lake and they want to keep it this way with a little help from the Indians. A couple Chinese nuclear submarines lurking in the Arabian sea, with bases in Gwadar and now maldives challenges the status quo. I think Maldives will come under tremendous pressure from the US and India to scrap the deal.

Last I heard India had plans to install their first overseas base on the Maldives. According to Indian reports they had already secured a deal to set up a joint services command structure on the island.

Although this news, if true, counters Indian claims. Chinese and Indian military presence on the same group of islands is not possible. If true, looks like the Chinese are finally making moves to project power in the Indian ocean. Not to mention that the base will play an important part in containing India as well as thwarting Indian expansionist ambitions in the Indian ocean. Next we'll probably hear of China setting up a naval facility in Myanmar.

If true and if the Chinese allow the PN acess to the base facilities then the benefits to Pakistan will be immense in terms of increased scope of operation for the PN, power projection, countering Indian expansionist ambitions for the Indian ocean as well as other military advantages - PN regaining the capability to outflank its adversary, recce/ monitoring activities, capability of naval strikes on the Indian east coast etc.

Maldive is very much under Indian influence. It is very unlikely that a country as small as maldives would take such an audacious initiative that could very well piss India. I think China has forwarded the offer to set up a base in Maldives but no decision has been taken by the Maldivian govt. yet.

Maruf

Jabbar,
Britan had bases in Maldives about 30 years ago. No longer I think they moved last base in early or mid 80s.

Maldives might not want to give PN access to construct a base for reasons far bigger than upsetting India -- it would be upsetting US.

PN presence in Maldives would not bode well for US presence in Diego Garcia.

Quote:

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Maldives might not want to give PN access to construct a base for reasons far bigger than upsetting India -- it would be upsetting US.

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Kumar PN is not going to construct a base on the Maldives. The news report Syed posted states that the Chinese govt. may be considering a naval facility on the Maldives. IF true then the PLAN will pose a far greater threat to Indian and US naval presence, in the Indian ocean, than the PN.

Sultan:

Thanks for pointing out the mistake.

I was talking about PLAN and am not sure why I typed PN instead :D

The threat PLAN will pose to the Diego Garcia is not going to be acceptable to US and thus Maldives in unlikely to provide such facility to PLAN.

Jabbar, Britain has an airbase on the island of Diego Garcia.

IF the news report of China establishing a naval facility on the Maldives is true and just for a moment lets say it is then as a lot of memebers are suggesting, the US and India would oppose such a move.

However will Male take heed of US and Indian warnings and reject Beijings attempts to gain a presence in the Indian ocean through the useage of Maldivian territory? this is the question that has to be answered in order to determine whether Beijings attempts will bear fruit in the near future.

Since independence in 1965 Male has defined its foreign policy to take a strict non alignment stance, even on regional issues e.g. when Pakistan and India became nuclear powers Male advocated Colombos proposals to make the Indian Ocean a Zone of Peace, the Pakistan-initiated Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone in South Asia, as well as the now-lapsed proposal to declare Nepal a Zone of Peace. Going back in history the Maldives have always asserted their autonomy and sovereignty by refusing any foreign powers rights to establish a miltary installation on the Gan island e.g. In 1977, Male refused a USD 1 million offer from the Soviet Union to use the island for its fishing fleets, and later it rejected a suggestion of hosting a "recreational facility" for American troops based in Diego Gracia. Similarly, in 1982 Male rejected a Singaporean firm's bid to buy the Maldive fish catch only because it was to use Soviet ships. Taking this into account it questions US ability to actually pressurise Male into rejecting Chinese use of its territory.

Their is a common perception that India enjoys very close relationship with the Maldives and their is a considerable Indian influence on the islands. This may be true to a certain extent today, however this was not the case in the past. The role India plays today was one that Sri Lanka played in the past. Indian involvement, until 1988, was somewhat limited to socio-economic development. The Indo-Maldivian relationship did not posses the irritants that Indian realtionships with its other neighbours does, apart from one minor 'hiccup' in their relations when Presidents Ghayoom brother Abdul Hameed declared he Minicoy islands an integral part of the Maldives, which raised alarm bells in New Delhi. It was later clarified that Abdul Hameed regarded the Minicoy islands to be a part of the Maldives in religous and cultural terms. While recently, Sri Lankas interaction with Maldives has not been on the scale of India, Male still regards their relations with Sri Lanka to be of significance importance as President Ghayoom once stated Sri Lanka to be the "gateway" for the Maldives' to the world. It is important to note that Sri Lanka's share of Maldives' imports were 65% in the 1970s, compared to India's negligible 0.03% share. It was Sri Lanka and NOT India that enjoyed greater interaction in the political, economical, social and cultural spheres.

However, India was able to overtake Sri Lankas role, when in 1988, a coup attempt by a group of Maldivians supported by Tamil Tigers was thwarted by Indian intervention. This created hatred amongst the Maldivian people for Sri Lanka, although the Sinhalese condemned the attack the Maldivian public still did posses a hatred for everything remotely considered Sri Lankan - LTTE. This event brought the Maldivian people and India closer. However, the government maintained its relations with Colombo albeit not at the levels once enjoyed by the two capitals, in the past, but President Ghayoom still saw Sri Lanka as the gateway to the world for the Maldives. Given Colombo and Male continued interaction on the political level and Male's view of Sri Lanka as the gateway to the world, I would not be surprised if Islamabad used its influence on Sri Lanka as a mediator when dealing with Male, to achieve its objectives. Afterall, it would be in Sri Lanka's interest as well to have force to counter Indian dominance of its neighbouring island - Maldives. Not only that but it will assist Colombo in restrengthening its interaction with the Maldives, on the economic; social and cultural, to the levels it enjoyed during the 70s before the coup attempt. (read below of significance of Chinese military presence to the Maldives).

Now that the stage has been set I can go on to talk about the proposed Chinese military installation on Maldivian territory. Yes the Maldivian foreign policy has been defined by a strict non-allignment stance, however, if the reports are true then this shows Male's willingness to enage other powers so as to act as a 'counter' or 'stabilisng affect' to a power that has come to dominate the Maldivian economy and society, in the recent years. A power that is rapidly building up its naval assests to project power and domination throughout the Indian Ocean - India. This does not mean to say that Male is abandoning is policy of strict non alignment, by allowing Chinese military presence on its territory but in fact such a move wll reinforce Male's commitment to non alignment by allowing its territory to be ustilised by a power that will act as a counter weight to Indian influence over the Maldives. Currently, India enjoys no military presence in the Maldives but it does enjoy a considerable amount of economic and social influence over the islands which in turn influences the political establishment for greater political interaction and poltical alignment with New Delhi. Something which would negate Males non alignment stance.

A Chinese military presence on the island will pave the way for future economic investment and open up a regular interaction with the political establishments in Beijing and Male. If such interaction on the economic, political and military levels continue on a regular basis it will act as a counter to Indian growing dominance on the islands. The Maldives credibility, as a small power eager to retain her autonomy and sovereignty, just reaffirms the motives for Male to allow a Chinese military presence. Although the military pesence of a foreign power is not the best way to demonstrate ones commitment to retaining their sovereignty and such a move will shift Males commitment to maintaining a nonalignment stance from a strict approach to a more liberal one. But such moves are necessary in light of the Indian ambitions to dominate the Indian Ocean and Indian ambitions for the Maldives to play an important role in the IN aspirations for the Indian Ocean - which would negate Males non alignment stance.