Security of Pakistan's Nukes

[RMS Azam]

TIMES OF INDIA:

Pak may have relocated nukes to Gilgit


MANOJ JOSHI

TIMES NEWS NETWORK

EW DELHI: Indian intelligence agencies tracked what may have been a movement of Pakistani nuclear weapons on September 13, some 36 hours after the World Trade Center attack. ‘‘We have information that a C-130 of the Pakistan Air Force with a heavy escort of F-16 fighters flew from Islamabad to Gilgit in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir,’’ a senior intelligence officer disclosed to the Times News Network.

At that time there was some puzzlement over the movement, but subsequent information confirmed that this was part of Pakistan’s desperate effort to disperse its arsenal. The officer did not reveal as to whether the Indian intelligence picked up any other movements. But according to a Washington Post report on Sunday, Pakistan relocated critical nuclear weapons components within two days of the attack ‘‘to at least six secret locations.’’

The remarkable alacrity with which Pakistan moved indicates that it was either fearful of a US strike to neutralise its arsenal, or was acting to clear the decks for its historical double-cross of the Taliban. But, says an Indian official associated with the Indian programme, the redeployment would not have been a haphazard one. ‘‘You cannot take weapons to any cantonment or location,’’ he argues, ‘‘the issue of security of the weapons is paramount and so the redeployment may have been part of an established contingency plan.’’

Whatever be the case, Gilgit is an ideal location for several reasons. First, it has an all-weather airfield and a strong Pakistan Army garrison. It is proximate to Pakistan’s friend China and it has well-sited defences to take care of any possible Indian attack. Equally compelling is that it is a largely Shia area, immune to the jihadist tendencies visible in Punjab, NWFP and Baluchistan.

The speed with which the relocation was done does leave a nagging sense of unease over Pakistan’s complicity in the WTC events. The redeployment occurred even as US ambassador Wendy Chamberlain had her tough-talking session with Gen Musharraf on September 13, and before US Secretary of State Colin Powell bluntly asked Musharraf the following day whether Pakistan would be a friend or foe in the conflict.

[RMS Azam]

I don't understand why they make such a big fuss about moving nukes. Every nuclear power moves its nukes on a regular basis. In a threat environment, obviously Pakistan is going to disperse its nukes and its delivery systems.

Gilgit is one place among hundreds where Pakistan can choose to take its nukes.

[Gul Khan]

Listen folks and listen carefully. India is 99 percent noise and 1 percent reality. Keep that in mind and you will know exactly where India stands.

After 10 years of spying with sophisticated technology and UN in Iraq US don't know what Iraq is doing but India knows about our nukes.

These stories make me laugh. Indians love it when they read such stories in their media it makes them feel big even though its bunch of crap. Hey they have the right to dream there is no law against it.

[majithia]

This is one of many ridiculous reports by this Spin doctor Manoj Joshi and his "BadTimes Of India" in sync with current crisis:D :) :D.

Most people outside a very select group of "scientists, the members of army command and control authority" that has jurisdiction over the weapons would know about the whereabouts of the weapons at any given time. As many of these weapons were built long before the 1998 experiments, the control authrity would have devised contingencies and perfected it with some decoy and real movements. Does any body think Pakistan would not trasfer all weapons in one shot and at one location?

This news also has some good propaganda value, a crude attempt to show Indian (educated)public how fragile "nuclear armed" Pakistni society is and deeply diveded on ethnic/religious lines. In the absence of strong political institutions, Pakistan has to depend on the military which is "No No" in so-called democratic societies like US, Isreal and of course India and hence danger to peace and stability of the region and the world.

This kind of propaganda is just the begining and not the end. We will see many stories in the Indian media in future if we remeber Kargil? In Kargil same army who is now the gaurdian of nuclear weapons was declared "rogue army" by the same people.:(

Majithia

[Sultan]

I for one am getting quite tired of having to listen to all these delusional Indians suddenly deciding that they know the locations of Pakistans nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the vicious campaign set about by the Indians to undermine the Pakistani nuclear programme Below is an article on Indias "hydrogen bomb". Although Abdul Kalams statements are highly exaggerated and surprisingly even the Indian media have dismissed these statements as BS. However, now is the time for Pakistan to highlight the Indian nuclear programme and the hegmonistic designs this programme holds not only for the subcontinent but also the west, with Indias plans to develop an ICBM and a triad of nuclear delivery systems. The mere fact that Abdul Kalam is boasting about Indias nuclear programme is enough evidence of India willigness to utilise their nuclear arsenal as a means of projecting their power as far away as Australia!! Pakistans FO has to utilse this opportunity to launch a vicious campaign with the PAK media to highlight the Indian programme and undermine it. Although with diplomatic measures we need mass public exposure. Pakitans diplomatic core can highlight the issue but we require constant exposure from an independent medium to support the campaign against Indian nuclear assests. Something which the PAK media alone cannot achieve. Just as the Israelis and the Indians are conducting a vicious campaigns against Pakistans nucear assests the same method can be used to expose the Indian hegemonistic ambitions extending beyond he Subcontinent. In order to do this we need to utilise the media to get this message out, one that has the capabilities but more importantly the attention of the West - Al Jazeera. A deal can possibly be struck with Al Jazeera to highlight and pursue the Indian nuclear programme and the potential dangers and threats this progamme holds not only for the Subcontinent but also the West. With public attitudes being steered into realising the threats the Indian nuclear programme holds then public opinion will have a certain amount of influence in directing future Western atitutudes to India and their Nuclear programme. Such a move would be a major propaganda victory for Pakistan.



Pakistan Observer 11-13-01

Indias Hydrogen Bomb
INDIA?S prominent nuclear scientist APJ Abdul Kalam has bluntly admit-ted that India possesses hydrogen bomb. In an interview, the outgoing Principal Scientific Advisor to the Indian Government has said ?Scientists and technicians who conducted the Pokhran II tests in 1998 are all satisfied with the results and we have a thermo-nuclear device?.

India never kept its nuclear ambitions a secret but it was widely believed that the hydrogen bomb explosion by India on May 13, 1998 in collaboration with Israel did not produce satisfactory results and that the country possessed the thermo-nuclear device in crude form. There were also reports that the bomb was in fact the property of Israel and it only exploited an opportunity to detonate it on Indian soil. However, this latest confirmation by Dr Abdul Kalam means Indian nuclear programme has got new biting teeth, adding to the capability of aggression by India. It is indeed ironical that on one side, India has achieved so much progress in the nuclear field and continues with its ambitious programme but on the other side Pakistan?s nuclear programme is under attack from so many directions. Ever since the beginning of the current crisis, an immense propaganda campaign has been unleashed by Indian and Jewish lobbies to discredit Pakistan?s nuclear capability by planting all sorts of stories that could raise alarm in the already scary world. There are also credible reports that Americans too have been encouraging such insinuations with a view to putting Pakistan under pressure so as to get maximum cooperation from Islamabad in the fight against global terrorism without actually conceding anything substantial to the country in return. In our view, the latest so-called interview of Osama bin Laden is also part of that malicious propaganda as any suggestion of OBL possessing a nuclear device is inevitably aimed at creating more confusion particularly about what could be his source. Secondly, it is believed that Pakistan's nuclear programme is virtually static as no further R&D is reported to be underway. Uncalled-for departure of Dr AQ Khan, father of the country's nuclear programme, in March also did not convey a positive signal to the people. Anyhow, as the nuclear programme of Pakistan is vital for the safety and security of the country, the statement of Dr Abdul Kalam should be taken due note of. Though Pakistan is following a declared policy that it will not come out with matching response to each and every defence related development in India but the nuclear programme being the only available deterrent our policy-makers must make it a point that the country should not be lagging behind on this count.

below is link taken from PAKSTRATFOR.com which helps to highlight the false claims of Indias nuclear program.

http://www.llnl.gov/str/Walter.html

[Gulstan]

Report: Israel adds nukes to subs

Saturday 11 October 2003, 19:11 Makka Time, 16:11 GMT


Israel has modified US-made cruise missiles to carry nuclear warheads on submarines, giving it the ability to launch atomic weapons from land, air or sea.



These are the shock revelations released in a report according to the Los Angeles Times which published details about Israel's new capability on Saturday.

The missile modification was described by two US officials and confirmed by an Israeli official, the Times said. All three spoke on condition of anonymity.

"The Americans said they were disclosing the information to caution Israel's enemies at a time of heightened tensions in the region and concern over Iran's alleged ambitions," the Times said.

Complicate efforts

"We tolerate nuclear weapons in Israel for the same reason we tolerate them in Britain and France," a senior US official was quoted as saying. "We don't regard Israel as a threat."

Israel's newly acquired submarine capability will complicate efforts to persuade Iran to abandon a suspected nuclear weapons programme, the Times said.

Arab countries have criticised the United States and United Nations for pressuring Iran to accept tougher inspections while ignoring Israel's stockpile.

"A big source of contention is Israel," said a senior UN official trying to convince Iran to undergo additional inspections. "This is a magnet for other countries to develop nuclear weapons."

[Shah Khan]

Pak strategic command stronger than India’s
By Hanif Khalid

ISLAMABAD: According to sources, Pakistan’s armed forces strategic command has been declared more effective and stable than that of India at international level.

In Pakistan, a strong national command authority of nuclear assets has been set up, while in India separate commands of navy, army and air force have been established. Military sources said that India, in collaboration with Israel, had completed the ballistic missile project. This missile will have 3,500-kilometre range.

The sources further said that owing to technical problems, India in principle had decided to get Israel’s assistance for its missile development programmes. The details of cooperation for the manufacturing of missiles will be finalised during the proposed visit of Dr VK Astre to Israel. It may be mentioned that Dr Astre is the head of India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation. Israel has become the second biggest arms supplier to India after Russia since 1998.

During the proposed visit of Dr Astre to Israel, there will be progress in the talks for technical cooperation. Dr Astre will seek Israel’s assistance for developing intermediate range nuclear missile Agni-II. India had shelved the short range SAM development plan on account of continuous failures but now Dr Astre will also hold talks with Israeli government to re-launch the said plan.

According to Indian defence experts, Indian Trishul and Akash will be converted into Israel’s Arrow-II anti-ballistic missile defence system. For this purpose, Israel is awaiting a green signal from Washington.

It is also learnt that Dr Astre will also take up the issue of starting India-Israel joint exercises to combat terrorism. India is making secret plan to start anti-terrorism exercises with Israel on Line of Control and Working Boundary.

http://jang.com.pk/thenews/nov2003-daily/03-11-2003/main/main8.htm

[Ash]

Article dated June 25th, if been posted on any other thread please accept apology, a bit at the end i think is appropriate to this thread.

The Indo-Israel Phalcon Radar System Deal And Pakistan's Response

cash and carry
by Moeed Wasim Yusuf
Washington - Jun 25, 2003

The United States has in the past week given the green light for Israel's sale of its Phalcon airborne early warning radar system to India. Washington was previously opposed to this deal, citing high tensions in South Asia.
Now, the State Department has declared that recent developments in South Asia have eased tensions between India and Pakistan and thus the acquisition of this system by India no longer poses a threat to regional stability.

Interestingly, the United States had previously also been instrumental in pressuring Israel to scrap a similar deal with China, the major concern then being the enhanced Chinese detection capabilities against U.S. forces should China launch an offensive against Taiwan.

The U.S. State Department's official line that the current peace initiative has removed earlier concerns that had made Washington oppose this deal is baseless. The current peace initiative is not the first of its kind.

These have been seen time and again, yielding little or no success. In recent times, the Vajpayee-Sharif "Lahore Declaration" and the Vajpayee-Musharraf "Agra Summit" generated widespread optimism, but hopes were shattered in each case. It will be no surprise to see the current impetus for peace meet the same fate.

The Nuclear Framework
The approval of the sale in question is the latest in a series of mistakes made by the West in handling the South Asian crisis. The Indo-Israel deal on the Phalcon will increase the likelihood of a nuclear incident (an event short of a nuclear war-- in which a nuclear device is accidentally or deliberately detonated) in South Asia.

India already exercises strong military disparity against Pakistan with an army twice the size of its adversary, an air force, which is three times Pakistan's and a navy, which is four times as large.

This disparity is critical given the region's nuclear framework. Both countries, having declared their nuclear status, are striving to maintain a "credible" nuclear deterrent. This is especially important for Pakistan, being the much smaller and weaker party.

A quest to ensure a credible deterrent is also a major factor in Pakistan's refusal to sign a "no first-strike" pact with India. To maintain the deterrent effect of its nuclear capability Pakistan recognizes the importance of reserving the right to launch a nuclear strike in case of an Indian conventional advance.

Any development, that removes the credibility of the nuclear deterrent for either side is likely to result in efforts to expand the country's nuclear capability, thus raising the level of deterrence.

The acquisition of the Phalcon system will enhance India's air-strike capabilities. This will increase the disparity between the two countries. An appropriate response from Pakistan is likely to ensure that its nuclear arsenal remains capable of surviving an Indian pre-emptive strike.

Nuclear weapons, if ever used in South Asia, can be delivered predominantly by two means; aircraft or missiles.

The former is more vulnerable to air strikes since aircraft can be destroyed while still parked in aircraft shelters, as can the runways they use. Pakistan possesses the F-16 as the most likely medium for delivery of a nuclear weapon. It also has the Mirage III and Mirage V, which could be used for this purpose, however the F-16 is likely to be the preferred choice.

Now, to maintain a credible deterrent Pakistan has to ensure that its aircraft cannot be rendered ineffective by an Indian pre-emptive strike. If an Indian pre-emptive strike is capable of destroying important runways or aircraft shelters housing Pakistani delivery aircraft before giving Pakistan a chance to retaliate, the nuclear deterrent will no longer remain credible.

Contrary to the widely publicized indigenous nature of India's military technology, massive international military support over the years has greatly assisted India in enhancing its air capabilities. In the past three decades India is estimated to have received approximately 700 MiG-21, MiG-23, MiG-27, Jaguar and Mirage 2000 aircraft from abroad.

In 1996, India closed a deal with Russia for delivery of 40 Su-30 attack aircraft. To further enhance the Indian air-strike capabilities, India has managed to acquire laser-guided bombs capable of destroying aircraft shelters housing Pakistani delivery capable aircraft. The first in the series of deals was closed with Russia in 1992, which delivered three laser-guided bombs of a 2250-kg combined payload.

This was followed by 315 Paveway II laser-guidance kits for British manufactured bombs in 1994. Finally, in 1997 the United States provided India with complete laser guided bombs, which were mated with Indian Air force's Jaguar aircraft. While the reasons for these military sales to India varied, the West nonetheless assisted in increasing India's air power vis-à-vis Pakistan and helped India inch towards a pre-emptive strike capability, strong enough to render Pakistani delivery aircraft useless.

On the other hand, the West came down hard on Pakistan for its nuclear weapons program. The United States after imposing sanctions under the Pressler Amendment in 1990 refused to deliver F-16 aircraft to Pakistan that had been paid for by the latter before 1990.

Washington's premise was that the capability of the F-16s to be used as nuclear delivery systems made their delivery detrimental to South Asian peace. This move by the United States proved counterproductive, as having realized the vulnerability of the Pakistani air-base defense at the time and compounded by the inability to add more F-16s to their arsenal, the Pakistani planners decided to focus on the other option; ballistic missiles.

Although the Pakistani missile program had been underway for more than a decade at the time the United States cut off its aid, the inability to receive the F-16s intensified Pakistan's efforts to develop mobile delivery systems. Ballistic missiles, launched from mobile delivery systems are less vulnerable to pre-emptive strikes.

The mobile systems allow wide dispersal of the missiles, making it more difficult for the adversary to target all functioning systems. In case of India and Pakistan, it is also difficult to determine the actual number of missiles possessed by either side and thus the initiator can never be sure if all systems in the enemy's arsenal have actually been destroyed in a pre-emptive strike.

An argument has been made that large number of ballistic missiles can enhance the deterrent effect. This stems from the fact that the inability of the enemy to destroy all delivery systems leaves the enemy concerned about a second-strike on its country, thus acting as a self-deterrent.

However, in the case of South Asia where reaction times are minimal, and communication channels unreliable, this argument does not hold. During a crisis both sides will disperse their arsenal as widely as possible. This would mean authorizing low-level personnel to launch nuclear weapons in case of a breakdown in communication channels.

Furthermore, if either side is willing to launch a nuclear strike on warning (LOW), after concluding that the adversary's strike is imminent, it will increase the likelihood of a judgement error, and thus a launch resulting from a false alarm. Needless to say that such an occurrence on either side is sure to see a response in kind.

Pakistan's focus on ballistic missiles as possible delivery systems for nuclear weapons has largely been intensified as a reaction to the growing disparity in air-strike capability vis-à-vis India. Any event that enhances this Indian capability further is likely to see acceleration in Pakistan's missile development, in turn resulting in a raised level of deterrence.

The Phalcon Deal
The sale of the Phalcon radar system to India will have this undesirable effect. The Phalcon is one of the world's most sophisticated long-range warning and control systems that will enhance Indian air-surveillance tremendously.

This system will allow India to execute a counter-air campaign against Pakistan more effectively and will also provide it with an enhanced capability to prevent a Pakistani air counter-attack. Furthermore, with the technology required to assess radar systems nonexistent in Pakistan, Pakistan is likely to take a more conservative view of Indian strategic defenses once the radar system is deployed.

This will inevitably lead Pakistani strategists to take an even more pessimistic view of the chance of survival of their aircraft in a sustained conflict, in turn leading them to focus more on missile development. The deployment of ballistic missiles, due to the unreliable command and control structure, as mentioned, can be the precursor to a nuclear catastrophe in South Asia.

It is disheartening to know that Washington's approval of this Indo-Israel deal has come at a time when Washington simultaneously seems to be involving itself in the current South Asian peace initiative.

This latest blunder by Washington will have the same effect that the refusal to deliver the F-16s did. The inability to acquire the F-16s caused Pakistan to actively develop and frequently test ballistic missiles. The present Indo-Israel deal is likely to exacerbate the situation further.

It is time the West realizes that sale of military hardware to India is not likely to help the situation in South Asia. The greater the disparity between Indian and Pakistani conventional and unconventional capabilities, the greater the likelihood of the use of unconventional means by Pakistan in a war.

The growing interest of the international community in finding a solution to the Indo-Pakistan conflict is because the world wants to avoid a nuclear holocaust. However, military sales like those of the Phalcon, which have at their back the same countries that are vowing to help the two sides achieve peace, are creating conditions that make such a catastrophe more likely.

Every missile test conducted by Pakistan in the past five years has been strongly condemned by the West. It has been rightly pointed out that these tests, in effect, are raising the level of credible deterrence in South Asia, which is both undesirable and unacceptable.

However, one thing the West seems to conveniently ignore is that it ought to take part of the blame for the recent Pakistani missile development. If the West, especially the United States, wants to continue providing military assistance to India, directly or indirectly, then so be it. But then no one has a right to condemn Pakistani ballistic missile tests, which make perfect strategic sense to analysts in the East and West alike.

SOURCES: Arnett, Eric. "Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control in South Asia After the Test Ban." (1998). Oxford University Press.

Cohen, Stephen P. " Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear War in South Asia: An Unknowable Future." (May 26, 2002). United Nations University Conference on South Asia

Press Trust of India. "US Approves Israeli Phalcon Sale to India." (22 May, 2003).

Press Trust of India. "China Declines Comment on US Approval for Phalcons for India." (May 22, 2003).

Ramana, M V. "Risks of LOW Doctrine." (2001) The Economic and Political Weekly, EPW Nuclear Notebook.

Salik, Naeem Ahmed. "Pakistan's Missile Development: Priorities, Challenges, Myths and Reality." (Spring 2002, Volume XXII-Number 1). Strategic Studies. Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad.

Moeed Wasim Yusuf is a researcher at the Brookings Institute focusing on nuclear weapons in South Asia.

[Amitabh]

Originally posted by Shah Khan
ISLAMABAD: According to sources, Pakistan’s armed forces strategic command has been declared more effective and stable than that of India at international level.

Assuming this is true, how would it be good news for Pakistan?!

[SyedA]

meaning we have more established proceedure of first strike capability.

[Ash]

Pakistan's Nuclear Deterrence Not Static
Updated on 2003-11-05 09:17:08


LONDON, UK: Nov 05 (PNS) - Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmood Kasuri has said Pakistan's minimum level of nuclear deterrence is not static and it will correspond to Indian actions because it is India-specific.

He was speaking at the Royal Institute of International Affairs on Pakistan security perspective here on Monday evening.

Nuclear deterrence now forms an integral part of our security calculus. We are determined to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent but at the minimum possible level. This level, however is not static. It will correspond to what India does, he said. He reiterated the country's commitment not to transfer nuclear technology to a third country and said its record was second to none.

The reports of transferring sensitive technology to North Korea were baseless and now even the US, after investigation, had said no enriched uranium was transferred from Pakistan to North Korea, he said.

Our nuclear weapons are India specific. They are for self-defence he told the august gathering in one of the leading Think Tanks here while making an impressive defence of the country's foreign policy on various issues ranging from war on terrorism to Iraq, Afghanistan and its relations with India.

Pakistan High Commissioner to the United Kingdom Dr. Maleeha Lodhi, Deputy High Commissioner Murad Ali were present on the occasion. Kasuri answered questions from the audience with convincing arguments and in a candid manner following his address, spelling out various contours of the country's security perspective.

He said Pakistan was forced to go nuclear as its various proposals to make South Asia a nuclear-free zone and establishing a zero missile zone in the region were spurned by India. India, he said, was relentlessly pursuing its ambitious nuclear doctrine of developing triad of 400 land, sea and airborne nuclear weapons including ICBMs, Cruise missiles and ABMs. Its huge conventional weapons are also alarming. India's annual military expenditure is about $15 billion against Pakistan's 3 billion.

Unfortunately some of the countries who give us sermons on restraint do not mind supplying all sorts of the state-of art weapons to India in total indifference to the regional security dynamics, he said. Pakistan, being a responsible country has proposed several nuclear and conventional CBMs to ensure a comprehensive strategic restraint regime.

Kasuri said Pakistan was party to the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention, the 1980 Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear material and the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention. It will support every non-discriminatory effort that is directed at preventing weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of terrorists, he said.

Responding to a question, he said Israel was introducing a new weapon systems in the region by providing Phalcon planes to India and Pakistan would respond to it, come what may. But this will increase poverty in the country and that was the reason Islamabad had called for a composite and sustained dialogue with India to solve its all outstanding problems including the core issue of Kashmir.

We cannot afford to continue squandering billions our defence when millions on the sub-continent continue to struggle on a daily basis against starvation and disease, he said. Kasuri said 1.3 billion inhabitants of the region were being held hostage to a senseless animosity between Pakistan and India but reiterated there could not be peace without addressing the core issue of Kashmir.

"The recent stand-off between the two countries is a case in point. The situation was escalated by India for no reason and ended by it when it realized that it would serve no purpose", said the foreign Minister. Pakistan, he said, was not averse to Confidence Building Measures(CBMs) provided these were aimed at achieving wider objectives, and not an objective themselves.

Kasuri said CBMs helped create conducive atmosphere but if the purpose of CBMs between Pakistan and India is to ultimately resolve the core issues leading to peace, we welcome them. But he made it clear if the purpose of these were to put the Kashmir dispute on the back burner for ever, then, I am afraid the so called peace initiatives would go no where, since peace in South Asia is only possible if the aspirations of the people of Kashmir are addressed.

He said Kashmir was not a territorial dispute rather was an issue which concerns the future of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Kasuri told a questioner Pakistan was ready for mediation, facilitation by a third country and emphasised the need for it because the two neighbours had failed to resolve their problems through bilateral means.

It was perplexing that India wanted peace with Pakistan but had refused to have dialogue with it. He said there existed an agreed framework of negotiations between the two countries which encompassed among other things both Kashmir and terrorism. Kasuri said as President Gen. Pervez Musharraf had said that the two countries needed to shove aside their stated positions on Kashmir and look for new alternatives acceptable to all the three parties. He said there could not be a better way than this to begin negotiations.

The South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation(SAARC) could not develop itself as it was also hostage to Pakistan India tension. Pakistan- India tension was also hostage to domestic Indian politics, he added. Pakistan, he said, was ready for placing international monitors on the LoC to judge the veracity of Indian oft-repeated allegation of cross border infiltration.

On terrorism, he told a questioner that it was in its own interest to fight it because it encouraged sectarianism and was a destabilising factor in the country. He referred to the recent killings of 40 Shia's in Quetta. He said there could be neither development nor local or foreign investment without stability and peace in the region.

He said terrorism could not be condoned under any circumstances but added that international community should not lose sight of its underlying causes if we were to triumph against terrorism in full. We should cure the disease, and not resign to dealing with symptoms, he said. He said extremist in any society were in a minority but the Islamic world was facing a formidable challenge on all fronts.

President Musharraf in his address to OIC summit in Malaysia, he said, had set forth the concept of Enlightened Moderation envisaging two-pronged strategy. One was that Muslim countries should reform themselves while the second plank was that the West should help resolve the disputes involving Islamic countries, and assist them in their socio-economic development. The OIC has set up a commission to make recommendations to be considered by the OIC next year.

Kasuri explained the basic purpose of establishing religious schools and said the poor families send their children to there as they provided them boarding and lodging. However he vowed the Government would not allow any such school to preach violence hence it introduced Madrisas Ordinance. Fielding a question on Tribal Areas, he said, it was for the first time in history that Pakistan, despite its limited resources, had launched an operation against the suspected terrorists, killing 18 of them and arresting about eight to ten. Pakistan has to withdraw 60 gunship helicopters and 70,000 troops from its eastern border to combat terrorists in this region. He said it was impossible to seal border with Afghanistan as no country could do it.

However he said some countries which had promised to provide Pakistan required equipment to operate in such a difficult terrain had not fulfilled their promises. The country was committed to fight terrorism to the last. He said Iraq should not distract the international community from the needs of Afghanistan. He said ignoring Afghanistan's reconstruction will be fatal. Islamabad, he said, supported Afghan President Hamid Karazai's call for expanding the writ of ISAF beyond Kabul and Kunduz. He said peace in Afghanistan was in the interest of Pakistan as it was still host to about two million Afghan refugees and wanted them to return to their home with honour and in peace. Kasuri spelled out five principles underpinning the security outlook of the country. First was that there should be undiminished security for all states irrespective of their size and status. Second, security should be maintained at the lowest possible level of armaments. A state that engages itself in a massive arms build-up in far excess of its legitimate security requirements is a danger for all.

Third inter state disputes should be resolved peacefully as enshrined in the UN charter. Fourth genuine multilateralism is essential for building a co-operative international security structure. Fifth, security is indivisible because a state cannot ensure security against external threats is its is weak from within. On domestic economic situation, he said four years back the country's economy was in shambles but now it was being projected as one of the five most fast developing economies in Asia.

Kasuri said an elected democratic Government, headed by Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali was in place. It was giving special attention to development of social sector making particular efforts in improving health and education and to empower women and minorities. He said there were 74 women parliamentarians in the House of 342 which was in addition to 41000 elected women councillors at the district level.

The End.

[skhalid]

A quick Question. How many of you have seen the videos of the Recent Missile Test by Pakistan. Have Any one noticed something Special about the Video.

Believe it or not but the fact is Pakistan did Test a miniature Nuclear Bomb on one of its Missiles. This time it was Plutonium based Weapon

[Reza]

Originally posted by skhalid
A quick Question. How many of you have seen the videos of the Recent Missile Test by Pakistan. Have Any one noticed something Special about the Video.

Believe it or not but the fact is Pakistan did Test a miniature Nuclear Bomb on one of its Missiles. This time it was Plutonium based Weapon

:) My friend, there is no way in hell that we tested a nuclear weapon recently. I think someone has been having you on!

[Ahmed M]

Khalid, do you mean we tested the design for that purpose, i.e. fitting in a miniature nuclear device, or do you mean an ACTUAL nuclear device was tested?

I don't believe the latter case to be possible though.

[skhalid]

Ok First of All.. It is a piece of info I got from some one working with the device.
Secondly it was a miniature Bomb. It was part of the routine tests. Usually Some are hot and some are cold test. This one was Hot. It was a non Political Hot Test which happens around the world with almost all the Nuclear Armed Countries. They don't have to be a complete detonation of the device but some components are tested.
This Time Plutonium Based Device was test with very contained and very low Yield.

If any one want they can verify this information if they have access to the right ppl.

[Sultan]

Oh come on..... Im getting really sick and tired of people using their friend, cousin, uncle, father as souces. People dont even give us a bloody name.

Either reveal a credible source (in your case Skhalid reveal yur 'informants' name) or dont bother declaring such unsubstantiated statements.

Not itended to cause you offence but its just rigt now nobody's going to believe you.

[skhalid]

I am not going to start any argument. As I Told Earlier You don't have to believe it. Nor Do I have to prove it.... So Let’s End this Discussion here about the authenticity.
Believe it.. fine..
Don’t! it doesn't matter...
I am not offended as I knew ppl won't believe it.. Any way I told u earlier if you can verify through some one that will be great. I wasn't there at the time of Blast so I have to rely on the info I got. And I trust the man.
It doesn't matter to me whether u believe me or not. I don't have to reveal the Identity of the Person coz He is among the top Scientists in Pakistan. According to him a Lot of ppl in Army and Civil already know about it.
More over it wasn't a complete a blast some parameters were tested using Hot Test. So it is not as big as we think it is. More over I repeat it was a contained yield test.

Those of you who have seen the Footage of the Test may have some educated guess about the type of Blast.

Over and Out...

[RMS Azam]

I have seen the videos of the tests and they were not a hot test of any nuclear device but standard conventional TNT warheads.

If Pakistan did use a small nuclear device, it wouldn't show the footage on national television.

Finally, I don't see the logic of testing a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile when you can do so underground more quietly and more safely. A nuclear device no matter how small when tested in the atmosphere of the earth makes a lot of noise, not to mention the radioactive fallout. Also, if it was tested on a ballistic missile, it would make a large crater in the sand underneath the point of detonation, which would be seen by satellites. And this info would have leaked into the media.

[Rafaqat]

Not a very trustworthy source afterall then skhalid !!

[majithia]

Originally posted by Rafaqat
Not a very trustworthy source afterall then skhalid !!
Rafaqat,

There are these so-called “holy people” in our beloved Pakistan who find “no good” in any one, and there is a species of people who “positively believe” almighty is bursting out every where (read only in Pakistan). They hide behind the basic spiel that God is every where and they only see Him; all people have to do is lump into this “cosmic connection” and they can be in tune with whatever and whoever they desire.. :D :D Then there are people who believe every thing that comes out of Pakistan (no matter how bizarre) is some “word of gospel”. At first glance many of these people seem to be fools as they believe in any “freak” that comes along with a name “scientist”. Once you get past these fools, you will find they are just plain ignorant - for them term “scientist” is somewhat impressive as is used so loosely by people in Pakistan. I fail to understand what this “political scientist”, the uninspired unenlightened huckster was smoking( if he ever worked on a such device and then tell people) spreading such nonsense?.

These people prey upon the gullibility, innocence and ignorance of our people. Physics is not (an) odd amalgam of ancient ideas and practices where nuclear blast can happen in “perfect secrecy and harmony”. Nuclear blast (in the open) creates lot of very dangerous mess, even detectable long after.:)

If the blind belief in the wonderful achievements of (our) scientists can be so appealing to “literate” people then it can surely hypnotize our masses which is very dangerous. And if “creative visualization” can be the answer to all of Pakistan’ problems, then I have been trying it myself - visualizing that all the ignorants and extremists in Pakistan suddenly disappear. So far nothing has happened.:D

P.S - My post is not directed at the poster in any way. It is the condition because of low level “knowledge base” of our society.

majithia

[Noman]

In Pakistan people like to talk, and they like to feel important in front of others. As a result, if someone learns a 'secret', he suddenly feel very important because he knows a secret, but then the problem comes in....he KNOWS he is important because he knows a secret, but no one else knows he is important, because the others don't know that he knows a secret.

So....

To remedy this situation he has to tell at least one (usually more than one) other person the secret under the strictest confidence, on pain of excommunication et. al. So he can feel important. But then the second person, knowing the secret starts to feel important too, but the second person can't feel important in front of the first...so a third person comes in and then a fourth and fifth ..... By the 10th person, the secret becomes PRETTY big. Because we all know, the bigger the secret, the more important the person is.

My guess ... a secret about a plutonium bomb would be in the order of a Major General rank in importanceness for the secret holder ???

:D :D :D

Also in my experience, the people really in the know....they know how to keep there mouths shut !!

[Boota Masih]

From a pratical point of view putting a warhead on a missile minus the plotonium core to only test the triggers and the conventional implosive device is possible. If the triggers and the implosive device works it would pretty much gurantee that the real device with the actual core will also work. However, actual explosion of a nuclear device even it is very low yield device can be easily identified because it will leave traces of plotonium or uranium isotopes in the air and the ground. Even after an underground nuclear explosions there are enough traces on the surface that if anybody collects a small amount of earth, they can easily figure out the structure of the device.

[Behjat]

Salaam,

C'mon guys, give skhalid a break. The poor soul is divulging a state secret without leaking the identity of his source. This should earn him our unmitigated respect rather than ridicule. May be you guys are just in denial--that Pakistan can't ever explode a plutonium device without anyone else knowing about it except skhalid's source. Anyone who doubts this is a Pakistan-hater.

Wsalaam
Behjat


(Amazing the mischief while Shaitaan is chained during Ramadhan, eh?)

[osman]

We should at least give skhalid's post some thought. Maybe the scientists just tested the conventional part of the nuke like the detonators and explosives which compress the fission material to critical mass

[Sultan]

Osman the post in question is bull... plain and simple... now if u want to entertain such bull then be my guest but until and unless Skhalid provides us with a credible soure his info. (read:fairy tails) is going to remain the source of ridicule on this forum. Its about time people cracked down on all the posters who subject us to unsubstantiated facts based upon what their friend, mammoo, cousin told them.

Cuz if we dont I could just come up with some hogwash like the PAF intercepted a flying saucer and managed to reverse engineer the aircraft giving us a tech. edge over the entire world. Its true because my 5 th cousin from my mums sideof the family told me so. See where Im going with this.


While Im still on a rant another really annoying thing that members (even some respectable members) enjoy indulging in is the following: I have a piece of really juicy info but cant tell you people because I dont think it would be appropriate to post national secrets on the web.

For crying out loud do us all a favour and keep ur gobs shut in the first place!! Either u reveal the info wih ur source or dont bther wasting our time. U people know who u are!

[SyedA]

I would agree with Sultan here.... I have heard number of news in the past and never posted it unless it was confirmed by the media... point in case possible deal of Mi-35.

I think when we start posting news quoted by a mamoo, freind, neighbor etc we loose our credibility since there is no way to verify it and also this forum looses its credibility..... so people... please stop these hear say news and incidents, we dont need them here....

Also, in order to be believed with these news and have credibility among PakDef old fogies, you have to spent few years here on a regular basis :) before you wil be trusted with such fairy tales.

[Ahmed M]

Originally posted by Sultan
While Im still on a rant another really annoying thing that members (even some respectable members) enjoy indulging in is the following: I have a piece of really juicy info but cant tell you people because I dont think it would be appropriate to post national secrets on the web.

For crying out loud do us all a favour and keep ur gobs shut in the first place!! Either u reveal the info wih ur source or dont bther wasting our time. U people know who u are!

Hear, hear.

[Noman]

As my Mamoon's nephew once said,

"I'd tell you, but then I'd have to shoot you!"

:D:D

[FarazA]

Originally posted by Noman
As my Mamoon's nephew once said,

"I'd tell you, but then I'd have to shoot you!"

:D:D

Did he miss? :p










(jk)

[yhussain]

Currently two scenarios of an Indian attack on Pakistan are plausible. One is a limited attack across the LOC in which India will try to occupy pockets inside Azad Kashmir. The President/COAS has stated that uncoventional tactics probably in the shape of Jehadis would be used to disrupt Indian lines of communication and logistics. The other is a full scale war in which a ground attack would be launched by the three Indian strike corps across the Rajastan border with the goal of destroying Pakistan's two strike corps. Jehadis would not be effective in such flat and open terrain.

In the latter scenario, Pakistan could operate on the traditional notion of not giving up any territory and thereby meet the Indian attack head on in a ground war of attrition that would result in the loss of a lot of lives and equipment on both sides.

The other option is to let the Indian strike corps enter Pakistani territory and then bombard them with long range artillery, short range missiles, including tactical nuclear weapons, bombers and interdiction aircraft.

If India launches a ground attack, then launching a tactical nuclear strike ten miles within Pakistani territory would be a strategy in which the prize of knocking out India's strike formations for a decade at enourmous cost to them would be of great benefit. The price of making a ten square mile or so stretch of desert radioactive in our own territory might be a price that is worth it. The Pakistani formations would remain dispersed in defensive positions and thereby not make themselves easy targets for Indian ground forces or long range munitions.

Some people believe that there is no space for a limited nuclear exchange strategy and that MAD is the only possibility. That means the nuclear threshold is almost zero with respect to the international border with the conventional imbalance. I think that would be an irresponsible policy that Pakistan could not follow.

On the other hand if Indian launches a missile and air attack on military targets within Pakistan, then that would cross nuclear threshold. That scenario is not actively considered by Indian planners (at least in Lt. Gen. Sood's book on Operation Parakarm) because it is considered too risky by the Indians. So that scenario does not require too much discussion.

In a limited nuclear exchange strategy, international opinion would matter because following a limited nuclear exchange, this region would survive and become center stage in world politics and become a magnet for attention, manipulation, strategic alliances, money and support. So a post limited nuclear exchange scenario should also be thought out. How could Pakistan extract military and economic benefit or recovery in the aftermath of a nuclear exchange and a full scale war with India. What would be the stance of allies, neighbours and major countries. In other words what would be the desired outcome or goal of such a strategy.

[AASharif]

YHussain,

What makes you think that India will not use tactical nuclear weapons to decimate our military formations likewise? Our forces would at the very least need to contain them so that a tactical nuclear weapon would be effective, which in turn makes them a target.

One thing I would like to express is that the PA is not the PA of 48,65 or 71. It is a formidable fighting machine that is continually improving itself at a very impressive pace (Unfortunatly the same of which cannot be said about the PAF). The regular news articles about strategies, tactics and reequipement is testimonial enough to this fact. Frankly I would hate to be in the Indian armies shoes right now or in the forseeable future. Their hope in defeating the PA lies with the IAF. Even if the IAF deals with the PAF how can it bring overbearing force on the PA in less time than the PA can deal with the IA. I have full confidence that the IA is going to get a beating unheard off in this day and age for such a large force. If it doesnt happen it would be soley due to the failure of the strategies employed by our top generals. But then again that in itself is far fetched.

Lets even say it happens and the IA makes great inroads into Pakisani territory. They would then face the angry population. We have all seen what a miniscule population in Iraqs desert can do. It would give new meaning to the term "War Crimes" when a civilian population hacks the Indian army into submission. Anyway I still dont see a corollary to the Geneva/Warsaw convention in a new Rajistan convention coming anytime soon.

A.A. Sharif

[yhussain]

AASharif,

If indeed the PA has such a superiority over the IA whereby it could not only repulse an attack but actually decimate the attacking formations through conventional war of attrition, then the use of tactical nuclear weapons does become moot, I agree. But frankly I was not aware that the PA perceives that it has such a conventional superiority over the IA and therefore I am somewhat sceptical about this fundamental assumption. If indeed we are improving, then so are they.

With respect to the use of a tactical nuclear weapons, I think operatinally at the time of intended use, the thin defending formations could either retreat or else take shelter in previously constructed underground bunkers that could withstand a nuclear attack. A key element is this strategy would be that PA has no heavy and thereby slow to move formations.

YHussain

[AASharif]

YHussain,

I do not believe that the PA has supriority over the IA and neither am I assuming as such. My inferences are based purely on an analysis of past wars and relative strengths at that time and then projecting to the present and future. Even PM in his tribute to the late ACM Mushaf Ali Mir expressed that his concern in the 2002 standoff was the air war and not the PA or PN.

The IA record is not good in all the wars. What happened in E. Pakisan was a forgone conclusion and should not influence future battles. In the 71 war they did not even face our main strike corps headed by General Tikka Khan. Neither could they slow down General Iftikhar Janjua's 10th divison. Infact it is my opinion that General Janjua was eliminated by our own military after his succesful crossing of the R. Tawi. Which effectively brought the western front to a halt on Dec 10, 1971. Their claim to fame was knocking out 5th Divisions (IIRC) WW2 Sherman tanks most of which were either stuck in the sand or broken down mechanically. Pakistan's belly (Rajestan desert) is not so soft anymore. Even in 2002 the Indians concentrated their strike formations there. They are in for a rude awakening if they think they are going to be met with WW2 tanks stuck in the sand with no PAF base close by. The IA certainly does not possess the 3 to 1 overwhelming force structure over the PA and will not anytime soon.

Lastly defensive fortifications in the sand will simply be out flanked. Thankfully the PA is alive to good tactics and his concentrating on mobilty and rapid deployment/redeployment.

PS. I apologize for being off topic. Will refrain from further diversions.

A.A. Sharif